#MerlinTradingCompetition #MyEOSTrade
May 20, 2025
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The big story in financial markets is not just global bond-market jitters, it's also bitcoin's (BTC) stability above $100,000.
BTC has held above that level for 11 straight days after jumping sharply from around $75,000 in early April. Some might interpret that as a sign of uptrend exhaustion, but it could also be the market normalizing the six-figure mark.
Think of it like this: When BTC first hit $100,000, many people likely thought, "This is crazy. It's too expensive" and perhaps refrained from buying or even took profits on their holdings. But the longer it stays there, the more the price feels normal and becomes anchored in people's minds. In other words, don't be surprised if buying activity picks up across the spectrum of products tied to BTC.
Confidence got a boost on Monday after Strategy, the largest publicly traded BTC holding firm, disclosed that it has recently bought 7,630 BTC at an average price of over $103,000.
"This aggressive buying campaign is aimed at solidifying $100K+ levels as the new floor for Bitcoin. ETF inflows echoed that strength," Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, told CoinDesk in an email.
According to Fournier, a price rise in ether (ETH) "seems driven more by organic demand than institutional flows — a potential sign of rising retail activity and decoupling performance between bitcoin and altcoins."
In other key developments, the market cap for Ethena Labs' synthetic stablecoin, USDe, has surged 35% to $5 billion in just over seven days, CoinDesk data show. The token maintains a soft peg with the U.S. dollar through an automated delta-hedging strategy that shorts bitcoin and ether perpetual futures to offset changes in the prices.
The jump had some market observers drawing parallels with the sharp rise in the market cap weeks before BTC and the wider market went bonkers in November. Back then, Ethena's ENA token chalked out a five-fold rally to $1.25. Let's see if history repeats itself.
The U.S. Senate on Monday voted in favor of the GENUIS Act, advancing the stablecoin bill to the final stage. "The bill … could significantly boost market confidence and provide long-awaited clarity for issuers and investors alike, but doesn't fully address offshore stablecoin issuers like Tether, which continue to play an outsized role in global liquidity," Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, said in an email. "For U.S.-based issuers, compliance will now come with steeper costs, likely accelerating consolidation across the market and favoring well-resourced players who can meet the new thresholds."
In traditional markets, yields on longer-duration bonds continued to rise across the advanced world, signaling growing concerns about the fiscal debt sustainability. The 30-year Japanese government bond yield hit a record high above 3%. Stay alert!
A message from Galaxy
Galaxy Now Trading on Nasdaq — Ticker: GLXY
Bringing digital assets and AI infrastructure to the forefront of U.S. markets
Galaxy (Nasdaq: GLXY) is trading on Nasdaq, marking a milestone for a company operating at the forefront of digital assets and artificial intelligence.
Founded in 2018 by billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, Galaxy has grown into a global platform offering institutional trading, asset management, lending, tokenization, and crypto ETFs. Its derivatives desk recorded over $20 billion in volume last year, and it ranks among the largest crypto lenders worldwide.
Galaxy is also expanding into AI infrastructure. Its Helios data center in West Texas is being repurposed from supporting BTC mining to high-performance compute, with a 15-year partnership to host CoreWeave’s AI workloads that will create a diversified source of predictable revenue that is uncorrelated to the prices of digital assets.
Find us on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY and learn more about how Galaxy is building the future of finance and AI at www.galaxy.com.
Important Disclosures
This announcement shall not constitute a solicitation of a proxy, consent or authorization with respect to any securities. In addition, this announcement does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. No securities commission or securities regulatory authority in the United States or any other jurisdiction has in any way passed upon the merits of the Reorganization or the accuracy or adequacy of this communication.
Certain statements in these materials constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PLSRA”), Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as “may,” “might,” “will,” “should,” “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential” or “continue,” the negative of these terms and other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions about us, may include projections of Galaxy Digital Inc.’s (the “Company”) future financial performance or results, our anticipated growth strategies, anticipated trends in our business or future events and circumstances. These statements are only predictions based on the Company's current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections about future events and trends that may affect the business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects. And as a result, these statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company and which may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For a further discussion of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please see the section titled “Risk Factors” in Part II, Item 1A of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2025. Forward-looking statements are provided as a general guide only, and should not be relied on as an indication or guarantee of future performance. They can be affected by inaccurate assumptions we might make or by known or unknown risks or uncertainties. Given these uncertainties, recipients are cautioned to not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Subject to any continuing obligations under applicable law the Company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements in these materials to reflect any change in expectations in relation to such forward-looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
Overnight Flows
What to Watch
Crypto:
May 22: Bitcoin Pizza Day.
May 22: Top 220 TRUMP token holders will attend a gala dinner hosted by President Trump at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington.
May 30: The second round of FTX repayments starts.
Macro
Day 1 of 3: Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will co-host the three-day meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Banff, Alberta.
May 20, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases April consumer price inflation data.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.1%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.2%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. -0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 1.6% vs. Prev. 2.3%
May 21, 2 a.m.: The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics releases April consumer price inflation data.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.2% vs. Prev. 0.5%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.4%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.1% vs. Prev. 0.3%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 2.6%
May 21, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data.
Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
Retail Sales YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. -1.1%
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
May 20: Canaan (CAN), pre-market
May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88
Token Events
Governance Votes & Calls
Arbitrum DAO is voting on launching “The Watchdog,” a 400,000-ARB bounty program that would reward community sleuths for uncovering misuse of the hundreds of millions in grants, incentives and service budgets the DAO has deployed. Voting ends May 23.
Arbitrum DAO is voting on a constitutional AIP to upgrade Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova to ArbOS 40 “Callisto”, bringing them in line with Ethereum’s May 7 Pectra upgrade. The proposal schedules activation for June 17. Voting ends on May 29.
May 20, 12 p.m.: Lido to hist its 28th node operator community call.
May 21: Maple Finance has teased at an upcoming announcement on the future of asset management.
May 21, 6 p.m.: Theta Network to host an Ask Me Anything session in a livestream
May 22: Official Trump to announce its “next Era” at the day of the dinner for its largest holders.
Unlocks
May 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $22.28 million.
June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $169.82 million.
June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $11.24 million.
June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $15.16 million.
June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $58.02 million.
Token Launches
May 20: Deadline for users to claim their Xterio (XTER) airdrop on Binance Alpha.
June 1: Staking rewards for staking ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance end.
June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
Conferences
You get a 20% discount to the Canadian Finance Summit in Toronto on June 2nd with the code CONSENSUS
Day 2 of 7: Dutch Blockchain Week (Amsterdam)
Day 1 of 3: Avalanche Summit London
Day 1 of 3: Seamless Middle East Fintech 2025 (Dubai)
May 21-22: Crypto Expo Dubai
May 21-22: Cryptoverse Conference (Warsaw)
May 27-29: Bitcoin 2025 (Las Vegas)
May 27-30: Web Summit Vancouver
May 29: Stablecon (New York)
May 29-30: Litecoin Summit 2025 (Las Vegas)
May 29-June 1: Balkans Crypto 2025 (Tirana, Albania)
June 2-7: SXSW London
Token Talk
📍TokenFi is facilitating what it calls the first-ever tokenization of a consumer AI robot, the Floki Minibot M1, giving the platform a unique real-world use and a strong narrative in the increasingly crowded market for RWA applications.
📍The Floki Minibot M1 presale and tokenization go live May 23, the same day TokenFi debuts its RWA tokenization module, aligning a high-profile product drop with core platform functionality — a powerful driver for platform visibility and utility for TokenFi's TOKEN.
📍TokenFi’s association with Rice Robotics, which works with companies like Nvidia, Softbank and 7-Eleven Japan, lends legitimacy to the project’s RWA ambitions and strengthens long-term investor confidence in TOKEN, which sits at a $60 million market capitalization as of Tuesday.
📍TokenFi will benefit from an upcoming RICE token airdrop to Floki and TokenFi holders, offering direct value accrual and potentially incentivizing new buyers and stakers of TOKEN in anticipation of eligibility.
📍The TokenFi team said Monday it would be the title sponsor of the West Indies cricket team's tour of Ireland 2025, bringing its brand to viewers globally through broadcast partners like TNT Sports, Supersport and Fancode, giving the token a visibility boost among retail audiences.
Derivatives Positioning
Bitcoin CME futures open interest has risen to the highest in three months in a sign of renewed uptick in institutional activity. ETH's open interest has jumped to its highest since March.
Still, positioning in both markets remains light compared with December.
On offshore exchanges, perpetual funding rates for major coins remain below an annualized 10%. It's a sign that while traders are using leverage to take bullish bets, the market is far from being frothy.
On Deribit, BTC and ETH calls continue to trade pricier than puts across timeframes, indicating a bullish bias.
Block flows on Paradigm have been mixed, with calendar spreads both bought and sold.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.51% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $105,181.50 (24hrs: +2.12%)
ETH is unchanged at $2,519.42 (24hrs: +4.46%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.42% at 3,171.22 (24hrs: +2.84%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 3.04%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0074% (8.1227% annualized) on Binance
DXY is down 0.2% at 100.22
Gold is up 0.13% at $3,233.79/oz
Silver is up 0.31% at $32.45/oz
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 37,529.49
Hang Seng closed +1.49% at 23,681.48
FTSE is up 0.5% at 8,742.80
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 5,440.56
DJIA closed on Monday +0.32% at 42,792.07
S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,963.60
Nasdaq closed unchanged at 19,215.46
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.29% at 25,971.93
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.56% at 2,638.56
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bp at 4.46%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.29% at 5,965.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.4% at 21,440.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 42,870.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 63.86 (-0.04%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02401 (0.29%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 853 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $54.3
Total Fees: 6.87 BTC / $717,919
CME Futures Open Interest: 157,875 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 32.4 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.17%
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Technical Analysis
The chart shows the XMR/BTC ratio has broken above the swing high resistance from September 2024, confirming a bullish trend reversal higher.
The pattern points to continued monero (XMR) outperformance relative to bitcoin.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $413.42 (+3.41%), up 0.4% at $415.06 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $263.99 (-0.93%), up 1.11% at $266.93
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$31.49 (+3.01%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.32 (+0.68%), up 0.49% at $16.40
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.97 (-1.97%), up 0.88% at $9.04
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.85 (+0.65%), up 0.55% at $10.91
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.84 (+0.61%), up 0.51% at $9.89
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.13 (+0.72%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $43.27 (+5.85%), up 4% at $45
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $33.91 (-4.21%), up 3.21% at $35
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
Daily net flow: $667.4 million
Cumulative net flows: $42.41 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.19 million
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: $13.7 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.54 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.47 million
Source: Farside Investors
Chart of the Day
The annualized premium or basis in ETH futures trading on the CME is close to topping the 10% mark for the first time since early February.
It shows traders are taking leveraged bullish bets on ETH.
The widening basis could entice cash and carry arbitrage traders, leading to accelerated inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs.
While You Were Sleeping
💸 Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge as Basis Trade Nears 9%, Signaling Renewed Demand (CoinDesk): U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew $667.4 million in net inflows on May 19, the most since May 2, as rising basis trade yield and bitcoin’s strength above $100,000 revived institutional interest.