Evening strategy for $SOL 5.20, Solana faces a test of key support levels; technical breakdown and macro pressures may trigger a short-term sell-off!
1. Whale sell-off and unlocking pressure
In early May, an anonymous whale transferred over 260,000 SOL, approximately 40.5 million USD, to exchanges, exacerbating market selling pressure, causing SOL to fail to break the 160 resistance level and drop to around 148.
In June, 8 million SOL will be unlocked, accounting for 1.8% of the circulating supply, combined with the aftereffects of the FTX liquidation, leading to a further increase in short-term supply and additional price suppression.
2. Macroeconomic policies and market sentiment suppression
Expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with the market anticipating a 25 basis point increase in June, a high-interest rate environment suppresses risk appetite in the crypto market, with institutional funds experiencing a net outflow of 730 million USD in the past two weeks.
Tighter regulations, the SEC is intensifying enforcement against "security tokens," and the review of the Solana ETF has been postponed to October 2025.
3. Ecological bottlenecks and intensified competition
Network congestion issues, Solana's actual TPS has dropped from a nominal 65,000 to 2,300, declining user experience has led to an 18% month-on-month decrease in developer activity.
Competition with Layer 2 and public chains, Ethereum's EIP-9999 upgrade has reduced gas fees by 90%, Aptos/Sui are capturing market share in gaming dApps, Arbitrum's daily active users have surpassed Solana's, diverting ecosystem traffic.
Key support and operational goals:
1. Bullish strategy
Entry condition: price stabilizes above 164.35
Target levels: 167.2—173.11—-179.87, must be accompanied by a volume breakout.
Strict stop-loss: below 164.00—confirm breakdown then exit.
2. Bearish strategy:
Entry condition: price drops below 166.16, short-term moving average support fails, forming a death cross signal.
MACD histogram shrinking turns negative, bearish momentum increases, DIF and DEA continue to decline.
Target levels: —161.01—-160.16–—159.44, if broken, may trigger panic selling.
Stop-loss level—168.06, confirm false breakdown then stop loss.
If you still don't understand how to operate, feel free to discuss in the comments, join in for the profits 🥩
