Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin in growth, leading to a sharp rise in the Ethereum/Bitcoin trading pair. This increase has sparked hopes for an upcoming altcoin season.
Nonetheless, a closer look suggests that these predictions may be premature.
■ The breakout that instilled hope
The ETH/BTC pair recorded its first increase since December 2024. For the first time in five months, the pair has recorded a higher low, which is usually considered a bullish sign. This increase is significant, as it recorded a 34% rise in just one week.
This rise has not been seen in nearly three years. The last similar increase occurred in July 2022 when the ETH/BTC pair rose by 56% in a month and a half. Despite this encouraging price rise, it remains to be seen whether this momentum will continue and trigger a widespread increase in altcoins.
The rapid growth of Ethereum in 2022 offers insight into the current situation. At that time, the price of Ethereum rose by 121% in just one month, from around $1,800 to nearly $4,000. This remarkable increase also contributed to the launch of a broader altcoin season.
Historical data shows that after the market's bullish wave in July 2022, the market confirmed an altcoin season in August 2022. The critical condition was met: 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperformed Bitcoin over the last ninety days, with the altcoin index rising to 96. However, currently, the altcoin season index stands at 18, according to BlockchainCenter, indicating that Bitcoin remains dominant.
Additionally, only 18% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies currently outperform Bitcoin. These metrics highlight that despite the recent rise in the ETH/BTC price, the likelihood of a full altcoin season remains low in the near term, although it is not entirely ruled out. If altcoin prices rise in the coming weeks alongside Bitcoin's growth, the market could witness an altcoin season before the end of the second quarter.