Bitcoin (BTC) is currently signaling a potential trend reversal. On-chain data shows that within the critical price range of $101,000 to $106,000, long positions are showing significant concentration and expansion. Although there is a risk of liquidation triggering a pullback in this dense range, based on wallet holding behavior, it seems that both retail investors and large holders are quietly 'increasing their positions', releasing positive signals for market confidence recovery.
On-chain data shows that holding confidence is rebounding: retail investors and whales are 'buying' simultaneously.
According to the latest data from on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, market behavior is quietly changing, and the current accumulation trend nearly covers all scales of wallet groups. Among them, small investors holding less than 1 BTC have shifted from a previous net distribution state to a mild accumulation, with the current accumulation score at about 0.55, indicating a warming willingness to 'buy the dip'.
At the same time, the more market-influencing holder groups—wallet addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC—are also showing a stronger buying trend. This synchronized capital inflow not only strengthens the support at the price bottom but also indicates that the market is brewing a more widespread bullish sentiment recovery.
The only group still in a net distribution state is the wallet group in the middle range (holding between 1 to 10 BTC), but the overall trend has clearly shifted towards a recovery phase of holding confidence.
The high-density area of long positions brings 'liquidity risk': once breached, it could trigger a series of liquidations.
It is worth noting that the current long positions of BTC are heavily concentrated between $101,000 and $106,000, forming a potential 'high-risk liquidity zone'. According to data provided by on-chain analyst Alphractal, in this dense position structure, the market is highly susceptible to magnified effects from sudden volatility, especially when prices breach the psychological threshold of $100,000.
Once BTC experiences a downward breakout, it may trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations, exacerbating market selling pressure and volatility. Conversely, on the short side, the current liquidation pressure is relatively light, implying that even if prices rebound in the short term, the impact on shorts may be limited. This structural imbalance poses potential risks for 'two-way magnification' in the current market.
Technical indicators are issuing warnings: prices are stagnating below the resistance level, with RSI and OBV both cooling down.
From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin continues to hover near the key resistance level of $106,000, failing to form breakthrough momentum. As of now, BTC briefly touched $106,813 during the day but then retreated to around $105,504, showing signs of weakening upward momentum.
Regarding technical indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 69.42, approaching the overbought range but failing to break through, indicating that bullish momentum is slowing down. On the other hand, the OBV (On-Balance Volume) is also flattening out, currently hovering around -86.6K, suggesting that market buying enthusiasm has cooled, and momentum accumulation has yet to form a new breakout point.
Key support and resistance are undergoing dual tests, and the market may soon face a directional choice.
Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a 'directional decision zone' between key support and resistance. If BTC can stabilize above $105,000 and successfully absorb the selling pressure above, the probability of attacking $110,000 still exists. However, if the price falls below $101,000, it may quickly trigger a concentrated long liquidation, and the risk of further decline should not be ignored.
At this stage, the market is on the eve of an 'invisible turning point', where on-chain capital structure, technical indicators, and macro sentiment are converging. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in key price ranges to guard against position risks under increasing volatility.
