On May 19, 2025, Binance Alpha announced the launch of the modular blockchain project SOON's token $SOON, which is seen as a landmark event for the Solana ecosystem's expansion into Layer2. SOON aims to achieve breakthroughs in performance and cross-chain interoperability with its narrative of 'decoupling SVM + modular architecture,' but the hidden risks of its $22 million financing and market competition pressure have raised doubts about its valuation bubble.
1. Technical Breakthrough: The Ambition and Bottlenecks of Modular Architecture
SOON's technical architecture is built around three core components:
SVM Rollup Execution Layer: By decoupling the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) from native consensus, SOON's mainnet achieves a block time of 50 milliseconds and a throughput of 30,000 TPS on Ethereum, more than five times the improvement over Optimism and other OP Rollups. Key technologies include Merkle root compression verification, distributed node horizontal scaling, and low-cost settlement solutions compatible with multiple DA layers.
Multi-chain Deployment Framework: Developers can deploy customized SVM Layer2 on public chains like BNB Chain and TON with one click via SOON Stack; the testnet has achieved 15,000 TPS and supports high-concurrency scenarios such as AI agent trading.
No-Mediator Cross-Chain Protocol: Based on an improved Hyperlane protocol, SOON reduces the cross-chain time for USDC from 8 minutes to 22 seconds, with transaction fees cut by 95%. However, the relied-upon Celestia DA layer has not undergone large-scale stress testing, and actual performance may shrink by 30%-50%.
Despite the impressive technical parameters, competition in the modular track has entered a fierce stage. Competitors like Eclipse are eroding SOON's first-mover advantage with lower DA costs and compatibility with developer tools.
2. Financing Innovation: The Double-Edged Sword of Community Fundraising
SOON's financing model breaks the traditional VC-dominated paradigm, raising $22 million through tiered NFT sales, with 51% of tokens distributed through three types of NFTs.
Short-term Liquidity Phase ($900): 3-month unlock, concentrated costs at $0.28-$0.31; if the initial listing price surpasses $0.5, retail selling pressure may cause circulation to surge by over 50%.
Long-term Lock-up Phase ($22,500): Locked for 36 months, attracting strategic investors to participate deeply in ecological construction, but the delayed unlocking of tokens for the team and institutions (after 12 months) may lead to secondary selling pressure, with a potential scale of up to $400 million.
While this design reduces the risk of VC sell-offs, the 'on-demand release' mechanism of ecological incentive tokens has the risk of oversupply. Referencing the Optimism case, the actual circulation speed of ecological tokens may be 2-3 times faster than planned, releasing an additional 50 million tokens each year, further intensifying supply pressure.
3. Valuation Controversy: Imbalance in FDV/TVL and Market Expectation Overdraft
SOON's fully diluted valuation (FDV) reached $90 million during the pre-sale phase. Assuming the mainnet launch results in a TVL of $5 million, its FDV/TVL ratio reaches 18.7, far exceeding mature Layer2 projects like Optimism (2.3) and Arbitrum (1.8), and even higher than Sonic SVM within the same SVM ecosystem (FDV $220 million, TVL $110 million).
This valuation bubble stems from the market's excessive optimism about technical parameters:
Performance Expectation Overdraft: The mainnet's claimed 30,000 TPS relies on the unverified Celestia DA layer, and actual performance may be discounted.
Ecological Cold Start Delay: The testnet has only attracted over 80 DApps to migrate, while Arbitrum had over 3,000 developers in the same period, raising doubts about application landing capabilities.
4. Risk Cycle: The Combined Effects of Unlock Waves and Competitive Squeeze
The risk release cycle of SOON tokens can be divided into three stages:
Short-term (1-3 months): Initial liquidity premium upon Binance listing may drive prices up to $0.4-$0.5, but as the first round of NFT unlocks approaches in August, retail selling may cause prices to pull back to a support level of $0.22.
Medium-term (6-12 months): Team and institutional token unlock in Q1 2026; if TVL does not exceed $200 million during the same period, the FDV/TVL ratio may revert to the industry average, and token prices could be cut in half to $0.1-$0.15.
Long-term (over 1 year): If cross-chain interoperability fails to make breakthroughs, SOON may become a 'technical laboratory,' and the token may lose its value capture capability.
5. Industry Reflection: Ponzi Tendencies and Structural Compliance
Lawyer Mankun pointed out that Web3 projects need to be wary of 'structural mismatches' in token economies: if revenues depend on new funds rather than real business, they may slip into a Ponzi trap. Although SOON has not promised fixed returns, its high FDV and low circulation design, along with early investors' arbitrage space, still pose a risk of 'later investors taking over.' For example, SafeMoon faced a collective lawsuit due to a similar mechanism, where the project team attracted buyers through high taxes and repurchase narratives, ultimately leading to user losses.
Conclusion: The Game Between Technical Narratives and Value Anchoring
Although SOON's modular vision aligns with industry trends, its valuation model and market competition landscape have not yet formed a safety margin. When the technical halo fades, the dual pressure of token unlocks and ecological cold starts may trigger a double whammy. For investors, short-term attention should be on on-chain data (TVL, developer activity) after the mainnet launch, while long-term focus should verify its real cross-chain interoperability capabilities.
As Layer2 competition enters the 'applications are king' phase, only by converting technical parameters into ecological value can one penetrate the fog of valuation bubbles.
