Bitcoin has spent the trading hours in Europe changing hands near the $103,000 level following a failed attempt on Sunday night to surpass $107,100. The retracement does not significantly diminish the belief of market technician Dr. Cat (@DoctorCatX), who argues that the decisive battleground is still three weeks away: the weekly close on June 9, when Tenkan-sen is projected to cross above Kijun-sen on the Ichimoku chart.

What does this mean for Bitcoin's price?

In a post on X published on May 19, the analyst reminded followers that "some people do not understand the concept of time frames," while adding that "although we currently have a clear rejection of volume, many people have decided to become fearful... on the first red candle in 4 hours, even if it is red, it does not break the support level."

He has framed the current drop as a normal consolidation: "Starting tomorrow, ~99.9K is a super strong support level," he wrote, identifying the high liquidity level between $98,900 and $100,200 as an area that is "likely" to be "scooped up quite quickly and decisively" if the spot bid is tested.

The crux of Dr. Cat's argument lies in the interaction between the fast-moving Tenkan-sen and the mid-term Kijun-sen on the weekly chart. An upward crossover of Tenkan-sen over the mid-term Kijun-sen—sometimes colloquially referred to as a 'golden TK cross'—carries weight for Ichimoku practitioners as it signals that short-term momentum has ultimately overtaken the underlying trend.

What makes the closing level on June 9 particularly fragile is the tightness of the current range. Dr. Cat acknowledges that "it is unclear which will come first, $99,000 or $109,000—and that doesn't really matter," but he asserts that "any deeper retracement below $98,000 is very unlikely." The Kijun-sen line is rising, itself the midpoint of 26 periods, which has in fact pushed the support level higher with each week of sideways trading.

Macro-sensitive traders will also be working around the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May on June 11—two days after the predicted TK cross—and the Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting meeting on June 17-18. With real yield expectations still dominating risk asset positioning, any upside surprise in core inflation could delay the confirmation of bullish chart patterns—or strengthen them if data shows moderation.

Currently, the market remains range-bound. As long as $99,000 holds on a closing basis and Chikou-span (the lagging line) remains above price, Dr. Cat sees little reason to abandon the thesis of all-time highs. "If by the time of the crossover, the price is still above Tenkan Sen... if the ATH is not seen by then, it will be seen immediately," he wrote.

Whether that confidence exists across macro time frames is another question. What is clear is that both discretionary traders and systematic funds have marked June 9 as the time when the chart confirms the bullish cycle of 2025 or delays it once again.