$BTC $BTC
We’re literally $3K away from setting a new all-time high for Bitcoin.
But based on gut feeling, seasonality, the Ukraine–Russia talks, and Trump’s latest statements, something feels… off.
1. People expect a new ATH this fall — typically 180–238 days after the last ATH.
If the new high happens in May, the pattern breaks —
but “experts” will surely come up with a hundred reasons why they actually predicted this all along.
They’ll redraw charts and metrics and suddenly “prove” that May was always in play.
2. A summer rally is possible — driven by positive narratives, like another DeFi summer.
But I still believe the final leg of Bitcoin’s rally will come right after the war ends —
That event will be sold to the world as “the best time to invest” because “things will only get better from here.”
This idea has been in play since 2022, and it still makes perfect macro sense:
A global moment of euphoria + peace = perfect trigger for mass entry into risk assets.
As for the market crash, I’m betting it will be tied to AI.
3. So why the uneasy feeling now that we’re hovering near the highs?
We might just break through a clean round number — say, $110K — because round levels always get hunted.
It could be a classic liquidity grab around $103–105K.
Millions of traders and investors will long the breakout… only for us to form a local double top and head into a summer pullback — maybe to close a $92K gap.
4. What altcoins will do during that time is anyone’s guess.
