【Analysis within 20 days of May 20, $BTC 5｜Structure stronger than data, it’s not a manipulation but a controlled market】
Today, BTC has once again experienced a market trend that many find "difficult to understand":
The data looks bad, yet the price remains stable;
Liquidations lean bearish, but market sentiment is not optimistic;
The structure repeatedly tests, yet does not break downwards.
At this point, if you are still struggling with "is this a manipulation to induce buying," you might miss the true intentions of the main players.
🧱 From a structural perspective: The main players continuously create high and low points rhythm
Whether on the 15-minute or 3-minute candlestick chart, BTC maintains a bullish rhythm of "HL→HH→HL". The key points are:
Each pullback touches above the previous high;
Each rise avoids strong liquidation inducements;
The price remains steadily hovering at the lower edge of the premium zone.
This structure is not "struggling to rise," but rather "planning to stabilize."
📉 From a data perspective: Sentiment leans bearish, but the main players are not in a hurry
According to data from Coinglass:
CVD (Cumulative Buying-Selling Difference) remains negative, indicating weak active buying;
Liquidations primarily consist of short positions, with the main players continuously sweeping these positions;
The long-short ratio is not extremely biased towards long positions, and is even still leaning bearish.
It’s like—everyone is doubting this wave of market movement, yet it refuses to collapse, instead forcing the skeptics to lose their composure one by one.
This is not the typical rhythm of manipulation to induce buying; manipulation usually involves rapid increases and decreases, with chaotic structures;
Today’s market, on the other hand, resembles the main players "stabilizing the market and gathering strength," buying time and chips for the next push.
🥷 My judgment:
The true aim of the main players is not to scare you, but to "keep you steady."
When the price hovers at a high position, the structure remains intact, data leans bearish but does not collapse, the most reasonable explanation is:
The market is no longer washing out, but rather waiting.
Waiting for whom? Waiting for a sentiment reversal, waiting for a short squeeze, waiting for trend-following funds to enter the market.
📌 Operational advice (currently the most difficult market to navigate, for reference only):
It is not advisable to recklessly short at this moment, unless the structure weakens, with a structural reversal + divergence + increased volume occurring together;
If the price shows another round of 15-minute level HH and the 3-minute structure continues → Consider lightly following along to go long;
Be cautious of the resistance around 105,900 and the strong resistance above 106,800;
For support, reference the range of 104,400-104,000 below; if it holds, the trend continues to remain valid.