24-hour important information:
1. Trump's tax reduction bill has made progress in the House of Representatives
2. TRUMP Official: The only interactive lucky spot for the dinner emoji will be announced before tomorrow
3. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio: Cannot accept US tariffs on goods including automobiles
4. 1confirmation Founder: ETH is a trustworthy and neutral store of value, expected to reach a $120 trillion market cap
5. US Treasury Secretary Yellen will attend the G7 finance leaders' meeting, focusing on trade issues
6. Arthur Hayes: The altcoin season is coming, waiting for Bitcoin to break $110,000
7. Justin Sun arrives in the US, may attend the TRUMP dinner on the 22nd
8. Jensen Huang: Plans to open source the world's most advanced physics engine, Newton, in July
9. WSJ: Binance executives meet with US Treasury officials to discuss easing government regulations on the company
10. US Senators will vote tonight to advance the stablecoin bill
Today is May 19, 2025, four years have passed since the 'May 19' curse day that historically triggered multiple market shocks, but the market still seems unable to shake off the psychological shadow brought by this date.
Last night, Bitcoin surged to the resistance zone of $106,000-$108,000 before quickly plummeting. Ethereum (ETH) appeared even weaker, briefly touching $2600 before crashing to around $2300, with altcoins collectively following suit, and the market was filled with lament.
Currently, the market is caught in a hesitation period of 'rebound or reversal,' and the battle after the US stock market opens tonight may become the key to short-term directional choices.
The trigger for the panic in the crypto market: rating downgrades and policy deadlock
Moody's strikes again, US Treasury yields soar
Moody's has downgraded the outlook on the US sovereign credit rating to negative, triggering a breach of the psychological barrier of 5% for 30-year US Treasury yields, intensifying market concerns over the expansion of the US fiscal deficit. Although Treasury Secretary Yellen downplayed the risks, the $1.5 trillion tax reform proposal pushed by Trump is stuck, and if passed, it could add trillions to the deficit, directly impacting risk assets due to policy uncertainty.
Liquidity Trap and Mainstream Game
The market liquidity was already weak over the weekend, and after Bitcoin surged to $107,000, it quickly liquidated long positions above, forming a 'trap for the greedy.' The risk-averse sentiment of Asian investors has triggered a wave of selling, but the real test lies in whether US institutional funds will continue to sell or buy the dip after the market opens tonight.
Is it the 'darkest hour' or the 'dawn before the day' for altcoins?
The awkward situation of ETH
ETH's recent performance has been significantly weaker than Bitcoin, with key resistance levels of $2700-2800 accumulating a large number of trapped positions. If it cannot stabilize above $2600, it may further decline. However, on-chain data shows that large holders are still continuously increasing their ETH holdings, and retail selling pressure has gradually been released; the long-term value logic remains unchanged.
The 'survivor game' of altcoins
Although most altcoins have halved, capital has not completely withdrawn. Some sectors (such as AI, RWA, compliant projects) still attract capital attention, and the exchanges' delisting of low liquidity tokens has accelerated the concentration of funds towards leading projects. If Bitcoin stabilizes, oversold altcoins may see a local rebound, but a full explosion requires waiting for a reversal in the ETH/BTC exchange rate and a weakening of Bitcoin's draining effect.
Tonight's key battlefield: the linkage between US stocks and the cryptocurrency market
The 'stress test' of US stocks
The three major US stock index futures have already reflected pessimistic expectations. If they continue to fall after the market opens, it may drag down the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market; conversely, if safe-haven funds flow into gold and US Treasuries, the crypto market may briefly stabilize. Key attention should be paid to the VIX fear index and tech stock performance.
The 'psychological game' of major funds
Current market sentiment is extremely polarized: retail investors cycle through 'selling at the bottom – chasing prices – panic selling,' while institutions take the opportunity to buy low and sell high. The impact of credit rating downgrades is mostly a short-term shock; if debt ceiling negotiations or Federal Reserve policies signal easing, risk assets may rebound quickly.
The essence of the May 19 curse is the market's excessive reaction to uncertainty, and the current volatility is precisely a window for capital to reposition. Although short-term risks have not dissipated, the resilience of the crypto market has never disappointed—after the 'May 19' crash in 2021, Bitcoin reached a new high in six months.
This time, will history repeat itself or will the curse be broken? The answer may lie in tonight's battle after the US stock market opens.
This week's macro events:
Monday: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak;
Monday: New York Fed President Williams will speak;
Wednesday: Federal Reserve's Bostic presides over a meeting, with remarks from Harker and Daly;
Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17;
Friday: New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation.
Seize the opportunity for 10-50 times leverage before the altcoin season kicks off!
JUP
JUP aims to improve the efficiency of token exchanges by identifying the most economical paths between different liquidity sources (including order books, decentralized exchanges (DEX), and automated market makers (AMM)). Bamboo Star Chain hopes to enhance the user experience of the Solana ecosystem through this initiative and provide competitive pricing.
Integrating liquidity from multiple websites to ensure users get the best rates. The platform also offers tools such as dollar-cost averaging and limit orders to meet the needs of both novice and experienced traders.
Jupiter has launched a large-scale token buyback plan, aiming to repurchase $50 million worth of JUP tokens. The platform decided to destroy 3 billion JUP tokens, complementing the previous buyback plan, which will reduce the total supply of JUP tokens and may enhance its value.
EIGEN
EigenLayer (EIGEN) has launched a 're-staking' feature that allows users to reallocate their liquid staking tokens (LST) or staked Ethereum (ETH) to secure additional services outside the core Ethereum network. By providing a universal trust layer, this technology eliminates the need for each application to set up its own validator set, thereby enhancing the security and scalability of decentralized applications (dApps).
According to insiders, currently about 4% of ETH is being used for re-collateralization on the network, indicating that ETH is quite popular in the decentralized finance (DeFi) market. This expansion underscores the growing appeal of the protocol and its potential to become a key component of Ethereum's scaling solutions.
FIDA
FIDA's short-term trend faces a directional choice, with the current price close to the descending triangle's resistance level. If it cannot effectively break through, it may trigger a correction. However, from the volume structure, the bottom shows signs of 'volume shrinking before increasing,' suggesting that major players may prefer a box-type oscillation accumulation.
Operational advice: Aggressive traders can wait for prices to retrace to the lower edge of the range (around $0.12) to enter in batches, with a stop loss set at $0.1005 (below the trend structure);
Target expectations: If it breaks above the upper edge of the range, the medium-term target could reach $3.8 (potential increase of over 30 times), caution is needed for the risk of a triangle breakdown.
ORDI
Leading coins in the inscription track, Pizzaswap and other DEXs address the liquidity pain points of inscriptions, opening up channels for large capital entry, laying the foundation for market outbreaks. The daily level has confirmed a retracement, with a short-term target pointing to the previous high of $10, and in the medium to long term, it is necessary to observe whether the overall heat of the inscription ecosystem can be sustained.
