Key takeaways:
Bitcoin fell more than 4.5% on May 19, confirming a bearish divergence and threatening a break below $100,000.
Analysts highlight $97,000–$98,500 as key support that bulls must maintain.
A potential head-and-shoulders reversal pattern points to a retest of $91,000 before any continuation of the uptrend.
Bitcoin (BTC) is down more than 4.5% from its intraday high on May 19, falling to around $102,000 in its worst daily drop in over a month.
The drop in BTC was accompanied by bearish movements elsewhere in the risk market, triggered by Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. government due to an increase in the budget deficit and the lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.
The drop confirms a bearish divergence and, combined with other technical factors, increases the risk of a price collapse for BTC below $100,000, a key support level.
Bitcoin's bearish divergence suggests a value below $100K.
Bitcoin's price action showed technical weakness before its sell-off on May 19.
On May 19, BTC reached a new local high above $107,000, but its relative strength index (RSI) recorded a lower high, confirming a classic bearish divergence.
This discrepancy between price and momentum is often a precursor to a trend reversal, and in this case, it unfolded with a rapid intraday drop of 4.5%. Analyst Bluntz warned traders to "be cautious when [making] purchases."
Analysts at Swissblock noted that Bitcoin "captured liquidity" above the resistance range of $104,000–$106,000 but failed to sustain a breakout.
The rejection pushed the price back into a previous zone with strong volume, with immediate support between $101,500 and $102,500 now under pressure.
Swissblock identifies the $97,000–$98,500 range as a key bearish target based on historical on-chain volume and trading activity, if the $101,500–$102,500 area fails to hold.
Bitcoin's H&S pattern targets $91,000.
On the three-day chart, Bitcoin is forming the right shoulder of a potential inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
Although typically long-term bullish, this setup implies a short-term retest of the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA; the red wave) near $91,000.
The chances of such a drop have increased since BTC failed to close above the critical level of $107,000, the same zone that triggered bearish reversals in December 2024 and January 2025.
A rebound from the $91,000 zone towards the neckline around $107,000 could increase Bitcoin's chances of rising towards $150,000.
