$BTC Evening Thoughts:
I don’t know if everyone remembers what day it is today; those who haven't experienced it might have heard of it!
Today marks the 4th anniversary of the 519 memorial. Those who have not felt it firsthand can’t possibly know how desperate it was at that time; just thinking about it is painful. Aside from not blowing up the spot, there’s nothing else that doesn’t blow up unless you don’t have a liquidation price. There’s no such thing as 10 times or 5 times without a complete plan.
🍯
Let’s look at the chart: the Fibonacci high and low points on the hourly level for Bitcoin can clearly show that Bitcoin is currently rebounding, and the upper resistance level is at the 38.2 position of 103977. If Bitcoin is strong, the resistance at 38.2 won’t hold it back, and it could go up any minute.
Conversely, if Bitcoin can’t even break past the 38.2 resistance, do you still think Bitcoin is strong? Moreover, Bitcoin is currently in a natural rebound within a downtrend on the hourly level, and it will likely have a second test.
If the second test does not break the previous low, that would be fine; once it breaks the previous low, we wouldn’t know where Bitcoin would go.
Currently, Bitcoin is also in a consolidation phase on the hourly level and is about to choose a direction; this direction is likely still downwards.
Bitcoin should break through 103345 with volume, chasing long positions to catch the rebound,
If it breaks down and fails to recover at 102958, then chase short positions on the right side, noting to observe changes in volume.
🍯
If Bitcoin can break through 103299 on the hourly level, it can look upwards to 103993-104642; if it can’t hold, it’s useless.
On the 4-hour level, if it breaks below 102359 and cannot recover, let’s look at the target positions below: 101442-100723! 100723 might be tested again, just like I said before, a single leg cannot stand steady.
Continuing to look at the chart: the yellow box on the 4-hour level outlines a classic bearish engulfing candlestick pattern; when you see this candlestick pattern, what’s your first reaction? Please let me know.
If the closing price on the 4-hour level cannot recover the opening price of the candlestick outlined in yellow, it’s basically done for.
My suggestion is to mainly short at high positions and use long positions as a supplement; do not let external factors influence your judgment. Do what you think is right; everyone else’s thoughts can only be a reference; the final decision is in your hands. Manage your stop-loss and disperse.