'Make quick money in a bull market, gain knowledge in a bear market. Crossing cycles earns the compound interest of time.'
The fluctuations in the crypto market are like tides. Today, Bitcoin just reached the 107 position, and while everyone thought it would break new highs, it turned around and now has dropped to the 102 position.
Recently, I have also been researching quantitative trading. In simulated backtests, I have tested many common strategies, such as dual moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI/KDJ, etc. None of them were able to make money on a small scale (within 1 hour), unless on a larger scale like daily charts, where it might earn a little, but the success rate is only about 50%, and the return rate is about 5%. It really cannot outperform the market (the test was on BTC, with the market over one year).
So here I advise everyone not to trust any indicators or someone claiming to have a 90% win rate indicator, or those so-called line-drawing teachers; they are all boasting and trying to take your money. If indicators or line drawing could succeed, you are just fooling yourself. You think there is a successful method or a way to make money, and as long as you grasp it, you can make money because you are confused!
I have also thought about why so many people believe these things, and my conclusion is 'laziness' and wanting to make quick money, because you are unwilling to think for yourself, unwilling to summarize trades, and unwilling to bear the losses of losing money.
And still wanting to make quick money, eagerly hoping for immediate wealth freedom. The market is full of various news, some smart money pre-positioning and making tens of millions, some buying meme coins and earning tens of millions, so you feel that a 10% stable investment return is too low, or feel that a few times return in Bitcoin over a cycle is too low, so you play contracts and meme coins, resulting in either liquidation or getting stuck at high positions.
In the coin circle where greed and noise abound, there are too many smart people and too many wanting to make quick money. There’s a saying that haste makes waste; another saying is 'slow is fast, and fast is slow!' When I was young, I found these things very mystical, but as I grew up, I realized that this philosophy is everywhere in life. Those who truly make money in the long term are exactly those who use the 'dumbest method'—hoarding coins.
First, the truth about cycles: the market is rising, but also washing people out
Let’s first look at a set of historical price data for Bitcoin (source: Coinmarketcap):
Conclusion: Cycles truly exist. As long as you can endure the bear market, the returns during the bull market could be more than tenfold. Therefore, what we need to do is find valuable coins, ride through the bull and bear markets, allowing the industry's development to earn us money, rather than foolishly playing contracts. When trading short-term, you are competing against other smart individuals; it's a narrow path where the brave win. If you think you are clever and can play, then go ahead, but if not, step back (acknowledge the loss).
Second, the victory of the Nine Gods and 'coin hoarders'
The 'Nine Gods' is an old OG in the coin circle. No flashy operations, no watching the market for short trades, only does one thing: hoarding valuable coins + enduring time. He started hoarding coins in 2016 and wrote many articles on hoarding strategies in 2018, following the same mindset as MicroStrategy: 'Only enter, never exit.' He has long achieved financial freedom and has now disappeared!
🧠 His strategy can be summarized in three points:
1. Only invest in long-term valuable assets like BTC and ETH;
2. Continue to invest in a bear market, take profits in batches during a bull market;
3. Do not trade contracts, do not watch the market, maintain a stable mindset.
Third, why is 'hoarding coins' the way to long-term wins?
1. High-frequency trading ≠ high returns
According to statistics from Binance and FTX, over 70% of contract users lose money within 3 months, with nearly 40% facing liquidation.
2. Very low risk, still high potential returns
Investment return after 5 years
Assuming you started a monthly investment of 1,000 USD in BTC from 2020, until 2025:
Total investment: 60,000 USD
Cost of holding BTC: about 22,000 yuan per coin
Current market price: 100,000 USD (approximately 750,000 RMB)
Account market value: nearly 2.6 times
Investment return after 3 years
Assuming you started a monthly investment of 1,000 yuan in BTC from 2020, until 2025:
Total investment: 41,000 yuan
Current account balance: 120,000 USD
Current market price: 100,000 USD (approximately 750,000 RMB)
Account market value: nearly 1.9 times
Investment return after 1 year
Assuming you started a monthly investment of 1,000 yuan in BTC from 2024, until 2025:
Total investment: 17,000 USD
Current account balance: 26,000 USD
Current market price: 100,000 USD (approximately 750,000 RMB)
Account market value: 50% increase, 50% increase over a year is already quite considerable!
Fourth, how to be a 'coin hoarding investor'?
Step 1: Only hold valuable coins
Choosing the right direction is more important than hard work. If you need to invest regularly for the long term, you must choose projects that can withstand bull and bear cycles. Junk projects end up at zero or gradually disappear, while projects that can exist long-term and withstand bull and bear markets are leaders in their respective sectors. How to choose specifically, I have talked about in previous shows, or you can follow me!
Step 2: Set investment rules
Recommended practice:
Fixed amount (e.g., 1,000 yuan each month)
Fixed date (e.g., the 1st of every month)
Proportion of coin types (e.g., BTC 60%, ETH 30%, high-potential assets 10%)
In bear markets, increase efforts, take profits in batches during bull markets
Step 3: Long-term holding, cold wallet to prevent impulsive trading
It is recommended to transfer hoarded coin assets to a cold wallet, such as Ledger, Trezor, or use hardware signing + multi-signature methods for storage to reduce trading impulses.
Fifth, are you a speculator or a long-termist?
Think about yourself:
After frequent operations, is your account balance getting smaller?
Are you chasing highs and cutting lows, feeling anxious late at night after getting stuck?
Are you looking at the market every day but unable to live peacefully?
The cryptocurrency circle is not a casino, but a battlefield of 'cognitive monetization + time compounding.'
Do not be misled by short-term fluctuations; time will provide the final answer.
Conclusion: Long-termists will ultimately traverse the bull and bear markets.
In this seemingly shortcut-filled industry, there is actually only one truly walkable path:
See the cycles clearly, choose the right assets, hold valuable coins, endure through the winter, and laugh last.
Do not be a short-term cannon fodder, do not touch the bombs of contracts,
Only be the 'dumbest' investor—hoarding coins,
Ultimately becoming the 'smartest' winner.
📢 Follow Teacher Zhu, subscribe to the public account - There is a big pancake in the book!
Focus on long-termism, value mining, project insights
Let’s traverse cycles together in the coin circle, through bulls and bears
