Professional analytical report: Reasons for Bitcoin's rise to $107,000 and future market forecasts Date: May 19, 2025
The price of Bitcoin reaching $107,000 marks a significant milestone in the journey of the leading digital currency, supported by a mix of fundamental and technical factors, along with positive market sentiment. In this report, we review the main reasons behind this rise and analyze future forecasts for traders based on current data and technical and fundamental analyses.
1. Economic factors
• Expectations for monetary policy easing: The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with potential cuts later in 2025, has boosted appetite for high-risk assets like Bitcoin. A faster-than-expected decline in inflation, as shown by the Consumer Price Index data on May 13, 2025, supported this optimism.
• Geopolitical situation: Global geopolitical instability and the increasing trend towards 'de-globalization' have made Bitcoin a safe haven for capital storage, increasing demand for it as an alternative to traditional currencies.
2. Institutional adoption
• ETF fund flows: Continued strong inflows into Bitcoin-backed ETFs, especially after regulatory approvals in the US, contributed to increased demand. Glassnode data showed a rise in Bitcoin spot purchase volume, with the 7-day moving average of spot trading reaching $5 billion on May 13, 2025.
• Whale activity: Coinglass data revealed net flows of $30.24 million from whales over 24 hours, reflecting continued institutional buying despite correction fears.
• Corporate investments: Companies like Metaplanet announced plans to increase their Bitcoin holdings by issuing bonds worth $13 million, boosting confidence in the market.
3. Supply and demand dynamics
• Supply scarcity: As the circulating supply approaches 19.87 million coins (out of a total of 21 million), scarcity pressure increases, especially after the recent halving in 2024 that reduced mining rewards to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. This reduction has decreased the flow of new coins, supporting the rise.
• Declining Bitcoin dominance: Despite Bitcoin's dominance decreasing from 65.38% to 58.86% over the past week, the flow of liquidity towards altcoins has not negatively impacted Bitcoin's momentum, but has contributed to the overall market stability.
4. Positive sentiment and news
• Impact of supportive policies: Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election and his pledge to make the US the "capital of digital currencies" boosted optimism. His statements at the Bitcoin 2024 conference supported the rise from $80,000 in November 2024 to current levels.
• Analyst forecasts: Standard Chartered Bank predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, supported by market expansion to $10 trillion, which boosted trader confidence.
5. Technical analysis
• Breaking key levels: Bitcoin's breakout above $106,180, as noted by an analyst on X, confirms the beginning of a new bullish phase, supported by strong momentum within an upward channel.
• Momentum indicators: A bullish weekly MACD crossover, as pointed out by @AkaBull_, indicates continued growth for several months, a historical pattern that previously led to significant gains.
Part Two: Future forecasts for Bitcoin price
1. Short-term forecasts (1-3 months)
• Bullish scenario:
◦ Price target: If Bitcoin breaks the resistance level at $108,956 with strong momentum and closes above it, it may target $112,000–$115,000, which is a psychological and technical resistance area.
◦ Supporting factors: Continued institutional inflows, improved liquidity, and easing regulatory pressures could push the price toward $120,000, as experts from The Coin Republic predicted.
◦ Support levels: The $100,764 level is considered strong support, with additional support at $92,947 (the EMA-200 exponential moving average).
• Bearish scenario:
◦ Potential correction: Slowing demand from the retail sector, as observed in the South Korean market, could lead to a temporary correction to $97,000–$92,000, especially if the price closes below $100,700 on the 4-hour timeframe.
◦ Risks: The CME gap between $77,800 and $80,600 may attract the price for a short-term correction before resuming the bullish trend.
2. Medium-term forecasts (6-12 months)
• Price range: Most experts expect the upward trend to continue, with a price range between $133,957 and $163,464 by the end of 2025, supported by continued supply scarcity and institutional adoption.
• Optimistic forecasts: Standard Chartered and Plan B predict Bitcoin will reach $200,000 or even a million dollars if political support continues and the market expands.
• Challenges: High volatility, strict regulations, or reduced retail activity may limit rapid highs, with a possibility of corrections to $86,499 if the main support is broken.
3. Long-term forecasts (2026-2030)
• Expert forecasts:
◦ Bitcoin Wisdom predicts the price will reach $218,794 by 2026, with a maximum level of $306,312 by 2027.
◦ Changelly forecasts a range between $169,829 and $281,877 in 2026, with moderate volatility.
◦ Messari predicts exceeding $600,000 in the long term, noting Bitcoin's resilience and dominance.
• Influencing factors: Continued halvings (expected in 2028), global recognition of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, and technological innovations like improvements in the Lightning Network will support growth.
Recommendations for traders
1 Trading strategies:
◦ Short-term traders: Focus on breaking $108,956 to open buy positions with a target of $112,000, and use stop-loss orders at $100,764.
◦ Medium-term traders: Wait for corrections to $97,000–$92,000 to buy, targeting $120,000–$130,000 by the end of 2025.
◦ Long-term investment: Holding Bitcoin while taking advantage of corrections to increase holdings, considering high volatility.
2 Risk management:
◦ Allocate a limited percentage of the portfolio (5-10%) to Bitcoin due to high volatility.
◦ Monitor regulatory and macroeconomic news, especially Federal decisions and geopolitical developments.
◦ Use technical indicators like RSI and MACD to accurately determine entry and exit points.
3 Indicators to watch:
◦ Trading volume: An increase in spot trading volume indicates continued bullish momentum.
◦ Bitcoin dominance: A decline in dominance may boost altcoins, affecting Bitcoin liquidity.
◦ Support and resistance levels: Watch $100,764 as support and $108,956 as resistance.
Summary
The rise of Bitcoin to $107,000 on May 19, 2025 reflects a complex interaction between macroeconomic factors, institutional adoption, supply and demand dynamics, and positive sentiment. In the short term, continued bullish momentum is expected with the possibility of testing $112,000–$120,000, but temporary corrections to $97,000–$92,000 are possible. In the medium to long term, forecasts indicate significant highs reaching $200,000 or more by the end of 2025, supported by market expansion and supportive policies. However, traders should exercise caution due to high volatility and regulatory risks, focusing on risk management and monitoring key technical levels.
Note: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and traders should do their own research and consult financial experts before making investment decisions.
Sources:
• Analyses from The Coin Republic, LiteFinance, TradingView, Cryptomus, KuCoin, Binance, and Investing.com.
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