Recently, Bitcoin's price rebound has reignited market enthusiasm. After experiencing short-term fluctuations, BTC has successfully reclaimed several key technical and on-chain support levels, sending positive signals to the market. This round of rebound not only boosts investor confidence but may also signal the onset of a new upward cycle.

Selling pressure has weakened, and investor confidence is recovering

On-chain data shows that early investors' selling behavior has significantly decreased, suggesting that the market is entering a relatively stable phase. According to CryptoQuant's on-chain analysis, the recent rebound in Bitcoin's realized price often occurs on the eve of significant historical price increases. Whenever Bitcoin's price returns to key cost ranges, it usually signifies a return of funds and an increase in market confidence.

Notably, BTC's current price has risen to around the realized price of the 3-6 month holder group—$98,800. This price level has historically held significant technical meaning, as it represents the average holding cost of medium-term holders. Historical experience shows that when BTC's price returns to this range, it often marks the starting point for a larger upward trend.

In addition, the exchange's foreign exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest level since August 2018, indicating that selling pressure is easing. The trend of Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges is strengthening, usually meaning that more investors choose to hold long-term rather than cash out short-term.

Whale accumulation: the real signal is not in the candlestick chart, but in on-chain data

Whale movements are always an important reference for interpreting market trends. Data shows that on May 17 alone, wallet addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC collectively increased their holdings by over 53,700 Bitcoins. Such accumulation actions are highly indicative, reflecting that large funds are quietly positioning themselves.

Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges continues to decrease, reinforcing the persistence of 'holding coins' behavior. Large holders (i.e., 'whales') have reduced trading activity rather than increasing selling, which is a clear bullish signal.

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index also corroborates this point. Currently, the index has risen to 74, in the 'greed' range, indicating that the market generally expects prices to rise further.

Long/short game: bears are cautious, bulls are accumulating potential

From the derivatives market perspective, Bitcoin's long/short ratio shows that bears are adopting a more cautious strategy. This situation often occurs during the consolidation phase before a significant rise. The current lack of severe short squeezes indicates that the market is in a buildup phase before the rise, rather than experiencing violent fluctuations.

It is worth noting that although short-term sentiment leans optimistic, the overall market structure remains in a healthy consolidation range, without forming a clear bubble. This consolidation period provides a more robust base for upward movement.

Whether it can hold above $98,800 is key to BTC's strength

Overall, Bitcoin has regained the realized price of $98,800, injecting strong bullish expectations into the market. A slowdown in early investors' selling, large holders continuing to accumulate, a decline in exchange reserves, and a moderate structure in the derivatives market constitute the core elements supporting Bitcoin's rebound.

However, investors still need to closely monitor the following key variables:

  • Can BTC stabilize and maintain above the $98,800 support level?

  • The ongoing downward trend in foreign exchange reserves and exchange inflows

  • The persistence of whale wallet accumulation

  • Is market sentiment overheating (Fear & Greed Index > 80 requires caution for short-term pullbacks)?

The next round of Bitcoin's market may already be on the way, but to truly confirm a trend reversal, more data resonance is still needed. For medium to long-term investors, this is a key window period to observe market sentiment and capital flows.