Since Doge started to decline from the high of $0.485, the market has experienced a deep correction, with a minimum drop to $0.129, a decrease of 73.4%. It then began to rebound. The current price has risen to around $0.216, up 67.4% from the lowest point, but still down 55.5% from the previous high. So, how will the market develop next?
We analyze comprehensively from technical aspects, market sentiment, and key levels.
Key Support and Resistance Analysis: Currently, Doge's short-term support level is in the range of $0.185-$0.195, where the recent rebound started. If the price bounces back without breaking this level, it may maintain an upward trend. A stronger support level is at the previous low of $0.129, but if the market tests the bottom again, this level will be crucial. On the resistance side, $0.235-$0.245 is the first key resistance zone, corresponding to the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. A breakout may challenge $0.30 (50% retracement level). If it can stabilize above $0.30, it might further challenge the previous high of $0.485, but a strong market momentum is needed.
Technical Indicator Signals
RSI: The current daily RSI is in the range of 55-60, not yet entering the overbought zone (above 70), indicating that there is still room for upward movement. However, if it quickly rises above 70, one should be wary of short-term correction risks. Trading Volume: The recent rebound is accompanied by a certain increase in volume, but sustainability still needs to be observed. If subsequent buying weakens, it may fall into consolidation or correction.
Moving Average System: Currently, the price has risen above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, but the 200-day moving average (around $0.25) may pose strong resistance, which needs to be broken to confirm a stronger trend reversal.
Market Sentiment and Potential Catalysts: As the leader of Meme coins, Doge's movements are highly dependent on market sentiment and Bitcoin's direction. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $70,000 and continues to rise, it may drive Doge and other altcoins further up. Additionally, Elon Musk's activities (such as whether the X platform integrates Doge payments) remain important catalysts; any positive news could trigger a short-term surge. However, one must be cautious of market correction risks. If Bitcoin declines, Doge may quickly retest support levels and could even drop below $0.185, testing the $0.15-$0.16 range.
Operational Strategies and Suggestions
Short-term Trading: If Doge breaks above $0.235 and stabilizes, consider light positions to go long, targeting $0.30, with a stop loss set below $0.21. If it stabilizes around $0.195, one could also consider buying on dips for a rebound.
Long-term Holding: Currently, Doge still belongs to high-risk assets. Long-term investment requires observing whether the Bitcoin bull market continues and whether there are practical applications for the Doge ecosystem (such as the expansion of payment scenarios).
Risk Management: Meme coins are highly volatile, it is recommended to keep positions controlled within 5% to avoid excessive risk exposure.
Conclusion: Can the rebound continue?
Currently, Doge is at a key position after a sharp decline rebound. If it can break through the resistance zone of $0.235-$0.25, it may further rise to $0.30. Conversely, if it encounters resistance and falls back, it may enter a range of $0.185-$0.235 for consolidation. The short-term trend depends on Bitcoin's direction and market sentiment, and investors should closely monitor market changes and respond flexibly.