DOGE has returned to an upward channel, with bulls strongly controlling the market.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has regained technical support after breaking the downward channel, confirming a new bullish structure. Currently, the price remains above $0.22, maintaining an upward rhythm. As of the time of writing, DOGE is quoted at $0.2238, up 3.37% for the day.
Next, $0.25 becomes a key resistance level. This position has provided strong support since February and is now turning into a supply zone. Whether it can break this threshold will directly determine if DOGE can open an upward channel, targeting the mid-term goal of $0.35.
Bears are accelerating their exit, and liquidation data is releasing a short squeeze signal.
CoinGlass data shows that on May 18, the short liquidation amount in the DOGE market reached $387,000, nearly six times the bullish liquidation amount ($65,000), indicating that shorts are facing pressure and being forced to close positions.
This extreme liquidation difference often signals that severe price fluctuations are imminent, especially under bullish dominance, which can easily lead to a rapid rise in a 'liquidation explosion' market.
The MVRV Z score is still low, suggesting that the upward trend may be far from over.
Santiment data shows that DOGE's current MVRV Z value is 0.94, significantly below the 2.5 'bubble zone' threshold, meaning the market is not yet overheated, and holders have realized very little profit.
This means that market selling pressure is still low, with most investors not in a hurry to exit, helping to sustain the upward trend.
The stock flow ratio has soared to an all-time high, releasing dual signals.
DOGE's stock flow ratio has jumped to 99.53, a rare occurrence in history. This increase indicates a decline in the activity of tokens in circulation, enhancing potential 'scarcity.'
This situation usually signals that the market is on the eve of a key volatility. Historically, similar scenarios often preced intense rises or precede corrections.
On-chain data shows hidden concerns, with network activity plummeting.
Despite the price rising, DOGE's on-chain activity has noticeably slowed. The number of active addresses has plummeted from 500,000 in early May to less than 30,000, and the number of transactions has also dropped to 88,000, suggesting that the recent rise may have been driven by short-term speculative funds.
This reflects that DOGE's price rise has not yet gained sufficient support from the network utility level and is easily influenced by emotional fluctuations in the short term.
The derivatives market is fluctuating, with OI rising but speculation cooling off.
DOGE derivatives data shows a 22.05% decrease in trading volume to $3.46 billion, but open interest (OI) has increased by 2.7% to $2.64 billion, indicating that mid-term positions are still firmly held by committed holders.
In terms of options, OI has surged by 10.61%, suggesting a rise in hedging demand, but daily options trading volume has plummeted by 85.89%, indicating a significant cooling of short-term speculation.
This indicates that the market is at a critical turning point and may face a directional choice.
Can DOGE aggressively break through $0.25? Technical and emotional resonance will determine its direction.
Currently, bullish momentum is strong, short liquidations are intensifying, and MVRV valuation remains low, forming the main bullish logic. As long as it can break and stabilize above the $0.25 resistance, DOGE is expected to launch a sprint towards $0.35.
However, potential volatility risks due to insufficient on-chain activity and tightening supply liquidity cannot be ignored. Breakthroughs must be accompanied by strong trading volume and sustained capital flow to confirm trend continuation.
Next, the gains and losses at the $0.25 threshold will determine whether DOGE turns sideways or strongly advances into the next wave of major growth.
