The track is spinning, and the machines are dancing

The so-called 'Alpha' has long devolved from information advantage to script advantage; the true participants in the entire market may be less than 30,000. Many are just watching the excitement on-chain, while few are actually spending money. Most projects cannot sustain their popularity beyond a weekend, leaving only studios mechanically maintaining activity for the sake of the next round of airdrop snapshots.

And liquidity is concentrated in a very few 'designated' coins. In other words, the entire ecosystem is boosting the prices of these few coins, while other projects are merely accompanying runners. On the surface, it appears to be consensus; in reality, it is a stacking of risks.

Airdrop delays = Chain reaction

The current prosperity is essentially a game of 'time for liquidity.' Expectations of someone issuing coins and airdrops lead people to complete tasks, lock up assets, and compete on rankings. Once the pace of coin issuance slows, or the reward amounts fall below expectations, the exit speed will far exceed the entry speed—at that time, the effect of liquidity withdrawal will swiftly transmit to all projects reliant on airdrop-driven incentives.

The biggest problem with this structure is that it cannot generate its own blood supply. There are no real users, nor any actual demand. Only the fast-food motivation of 'complete once, claim once.' This kind of play is only suitable for short-cycle speculation and cannot support long-term market value logic.

Platform thinking determines market direction

When Alpha becomes the mainstream logic, the design of the platform's incentive mechanism becomes a source of systemic risk. Currently, most platforms' criteria are still based on easily produced data points like on-chain interaction volume and task completion rates.

If the 'reward for brushing' incentive model continues to be indulged, what remains in the end will not be quality users, but a sea of zombie wallets and a batch of tokens destined to crash.

There are only two ways out

First, begin to liquidate the illusion of 'volume-driven brushing' and shift the incentive structure towards real user behavior. For example, binding long-term locked positions, social influence, off-chain identity verification, contribution proof, and other composite indicators.

Second, reallocate liquidity resources. No longer allow liquidity to remain concentrated on a few hot projects, but encourage liquidity 'rotation' through mechanisms, allowing more projects to have a basic trading depth and survival space.

In summary:

If the frequency of airdrops decreases or the pace is delayed in the next month, this wave of Alpha projects will face a collective stall. The market may seem lively, but in reality, it is self-destructing.

@cz_binance @heyibinance @sisibinance