Bitcoin has been called many things: bubble, refuge, speculation, revolution. But there is a little-explored dimension that could be the key to its future value. We are not talking about ETFs or halving.
We are talking about a financial monster hidden in plain sight: the global off-balance market.
📍 The figure that no one discusses: $100 trillion hidden.
According to a 2022 report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), off-balance sheet financial instruments - OTC derivatives, interest rate swaps, structured debt, unregistered liabilities - could reach $100 to $120 trillion.
That is to say, a market larger than the GDP of the entire planet... that isn’t even recorded on official balance sheets.
These assets share a critical characteristic: no one knows for sure who will be ultimately responsible if things go wrong. They have no physical backing, there is no transparency, and in many cases, there isn’t even a real audit.
📍 Bitcoin: the only asset without liabilities
In contrast, Bitcoin is scarce, transparent, auditable, has no counterparty risk, and has a limited issuance of 21 million. It is, in essence, the only digital monetary asset without liabilities or promises.
📍And here is the key point: if even 5% of that opaque financial colossus - between USD 5 and 6 trillion - decided to migrate towards assets with no counterparty risk, the impact would be tectonic.
And we are not talking about extreme scenarios, but rather a logical response to an environment where trust in traditional institutions begins to erode.
Now, the Bitcoin ecosystem is not prepared to absorb such volume without a drastic price readjustment.
Although the maximum supply is 21 million BTC, it is estimated that more than 3 million are lost forever, and a large portion remains in the hands of holders who have no intention of selling. This significantly reduces the available supply.
If that capital decided to take refuge in Bitcoin, it would not only exponentially increase demand: it would also face an incredibly rigid, limited, and scarce supply, generating unprecedented upward pressure.
📍A price of $1 million for Bitcoin? It’s not madness, it’s mathematics.
If only that fraction heads to Bitcoin, the impact on price would be explosive. Considering the illiquid nature of the BTC market, where most coins are held long-term, the effects on the supply and demand curve would be dramatic.
The result: a price of $1 million per BTC might not only be possible... but necessary, to absorb that capital.
📍It’s not about hype, but about monetary mechanics.
Many analysts focus the future price of BTC on narratives such as institutional adoption, ETFs, or halvings. But the real story is behind the scenes, in a global financial system where debts are recycled and assets are not sustained.
If the financial world begins to distrust itself, Bitcoin becomes the new language of trust.