DOGE/EUR on the 1-hour chart is presenting a textbook scenario of a potential correction after an overextended rally. Despite the surface appearance of strength, a deeper look at the technicals and money flow reveals a far more nuanced and precarious situation. At first glance, the large inflow of 697,796 DOGE over the last 24 hours might seem like a bullish signal, but this is a deceptive narrative. The total money flow is actually negative, with a net outflow of -48,080 DOGE. While a handful of large orders contributed to the influx, the medium and small transactions are dominated by sellers, indicating that retail traders are using this opportunity to exit. What appears to be strength is, in fact, a fragile situation where a few big players have stepped in, but the broader market sentiment is leaning towards selling.
The MACD barely holds above zero at 0.00058. This weak positive reading is not a sign of strength but rather an indication of indecision. Bulls are trying to push, but their momentum is thin. The signal line is too close, and any slight increase in selling pressure could easily push this indicator back into the negative. A MACD in this state is a ticking time bomb—an early warning that the bullish narrative is struggling for survival.
RSI at 72.13 is firmly in overbought territory, a sign that the buying pressure is becoming unsustainable. The Stochastic RSI is even more extreme, sitting at 93.08, a classic signal that a reversal or correction is looming. These indicators rarely maintain such elevated levels without a pullback, and in this case, they are practically begging for one.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) has shown some accumulation, but the recent flattening suggests a loss of enthusiasm among buyers. What was once a slow and steady climb has turned into a desperate struggle to maintain momentum. The price is also pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, a clear sign that it has stretched itself thin. When the price clings to the upper band without a substantial follow-through, it usually means exhaustion is setting in.
The story here is one of conflicting narratives. A handful of large buyers make it seem like DOGE is ready for another leg up, but the broader flow shows that smaller traders are cashing out. The RSI and Stochastic RSI are screaming for a cooldown, while the MACD’s frail positive reading hints at a fragile bullish story hanging by a thread. This isn’t the beginning of a rally—it’s the final dance before the curtain falls. The overbought conditions and weak momentum indicators all point to a market that has run out of gas, leaving those who jump in now as little more than liquidity for the exit.
