Arthur Hayes predicts an unstoppable rise in bitcoin's price as U.S. Treasury bonds collapse and repatriated capital drives a global rush into BTC, targeting $1 million.
Arthur Hayes: The Repatriation of Capital and the Collapse of Treasuries Will Push Bitcoin to $1 Million
Arthur Hayes, the chief investment officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitmex, shared his latest macroeconomic outlook in a blog post on May 14, asserting that the U.S. is heading towards capital controls as a more politically viable alternative to tariffs.
He warns that continued dependence on foreign capital and financial printing will eventually force policymakers to enact policies that restrict foreign investment in the U.S. financial market.
Hayes explains that a 2% tax on U.S. assets held by foreigners—totaling $33 trillion—would be easier to enforce and more effective than tariffs. He argues that this tax could offset income tax for 90% of Americans.
As foreign capital retreats, he hopes the Federal Reserve will intervene with stimulus measures to support weakening markets. This will set the stage for a strong repricing of alternative assets, especially BTC. The chief investment officer of Maelstrom claims:
Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset in this global monetary transition.
He argues that capital controls will make it harder for investors to allocate capital freely around the globe, but one medium will still be accessible. "As long as there is internet, you will be able to sell fiat currency for bitcoin," he says.
The co-founder of Bitmex emphasizes the utility of BTC in a world with fragmented capital markets, asserting: "Bitcoin is the perfect and only lifeboat for global capital that has to leave the U.S. and elsewhere." He predicts that geopolitical changes and domestic monetary policy will drive up the price of cryptocurrencies, stating:
The repatriation of foreign capital and the devaluation of the enormous U.S. Treasury bond market will be two catalysts driving the price of bitcoin to $1 million at some point between now and 2028.
"I say 2028 because that is when the next U.S. presidential election will take place, and who knows what kind of politician will win and what policies they will implement," he explains clearly. Calling this an opportunity, he emphasizes: "Now is the time to make money while the sun king is shining with bitcoin." However, Hayes acknowledges the impending volatility, warning: "Just because I believe bitcoin will reach $1 million does not mean there won’t be opportunities to hold strategic short positions."