The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to announce its decision on Franklin Templeton’s proposed spot XRP ETF, the Franklin XRP Fund, by June 17, 2025. This follows an extension of the initial 45-day review period. Despite the anticipation, no public comments have been received, and analysts suggest that approval this month remains unlikely.

Analyst Predictions and Market Sentiment

  • Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, estimates a 65% chance of XRP ETF approval, aligning it with other 1933 Act filings like Bitcoin’s $IBIT. He notes that the recently launched 2x XRP futures ETF has already surpassed the combined assets under management (AUM) of two U.S. Solana futures ETFs, indicating strong investor interest. 

  • Polymarket, a prediction platform, reflects market skepticism with only a 32% probability of approval by July 31. However, confidence rises to 83% for approval before the end of 2025.

Regulatory Environment and Institutional Engagement

The SEC, under the leadership of pro-crypto Chairman Paul Atkins, appointed by President Donald Trump, has been engaging with major asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton through recent crypto roundtables. These discussions may signal a more favorable stance towards altcoin ETFs, including XRP.

Market Projections and XRP Price Stability

  • Standard Chartered projects that XRP could surge over 500% to reach $12.50 by 2028, anticipating ETF approval by Q3 2025.

  • JPMorgan estimates that altcoin ETFs could attract $14 billion in inflows during their first year, with $4–8 billion potentially directed into XRP ETFs.

As of May 17, 2025, XRP is trading at approximately $2.34, marking a 3% decline over the past 24 hours, with intraday highs and lows of $2.43 and $2.33, respectively.

Conclusion

While immediate approval of the XRP ETF by the June deadline appears uncertain, the evolving regulatory landscape and increasing institutional interest suggest a favorable outcome by the final deadline in October 2025. Investors should stay informed and monitor developments closely as the SEC's decision approaches.

#XRPETF #CryptoRegulation #AltcoinInvestment

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📢Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research before making investment decisions.