As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a relatively narrow price range, the overall crypto market remains in a consolidation phase. The current oscillation pattern has also affected the altcoin sector, where Avalanche (AVAX) shows a slight price pullback trend. Data shows that the AVAX price has declined from a recent local high of $26.88, facing a tug-of-war situation between bullish and bearish forces in the short term. So, is there hope for AVAX's price to continue its upward trend? Here are the potential development paths for the coming weeks.
Rising volatility, market expectations unchanged.
Since the fourth quarter of 2024, AVAX has successfully broken through a long-term sideways consolidation pattern, with overall volatility significantly increasing. Although it encountered pullback pressure after the breakout, the sentiment of market participants has not noticeably weakened, and overall confidence still leans positively. This is mainly due to the continuous advancement of high-speed subnets (Subnet) within the Avalanche network, injecting strong momentum for ecological expansion and performance improvement, becoming one of the important factors driving investors' optimistic expectations.
Based on the current trend, if bullish momentum continues to accumulate, it is expected that AVAX will have the opportunity to challenge above $26 again within the next 10 days, with a short-term target set in the $26.00~26.20 range.
Technical structure and key support: The pullback is still within a reasonable range.
Despite the recent price decline, the Gaussian Channel still maintains a bullish structure, which retains certain technical possibilities for subsequent rebounds. Currently, AVAX is testing a key support level—$22.75. This price range has appeared as strong resistance multiple times since March of this year; if it can hold during the current test, it will further strengthen its 'support conversion' status.
However, it is also necessary to pay attention to warning signals released by some technical indicators. The MACD indicator shows that buying momentum is gradually weakening, and there are signs of a bearish crossover forming. If the downward volume continues, it may trigger more short-term selling pressure.
Short-term observation targets and medium-term breakout conditions
Comprehensive judgment based on the current technical structure, if AVAX cannot stabilize at the $22.75 support level, its price may drop to lower technical support areas—around the midline of the ascending channel at approximately $21.45. This level also serves as the balance point for short-term bullish and bearish capital battles; if it can stabilize, it may become the initiation area for subsequent rebounds.
In terms of rebound path, the $26~28 area may constitute a phase strong resistance zone. Especially at the $28 level, if it cannot break through effectively with volume, this range may strengthen the market's bearish expectations, potentially attracting more short positions. Conversely, if the price can break through the $30 mark and hold, market confidence is expected to significantly strengthen, which may reignite the medium-term upward trend, and even further probe $50 as a medium-term target.
Cautiously optimistic, waiting for signal confirmation. Overall, although Avalanche is facing a short-term adjustment, from a technical structure and ecological fundamentals perspective, the overall trend still retains rebound potential. As long as Bitcoin has not broken through the consolidation pattern, the volatility of AVAX may continue in a tug-of-war trend. Investors should focus on whether the support level holds and the occurrence of signals indicating the conversion of bullish and bearish momentum.