The past few days have seen declines, will there be no interest rate cuts in July?
Powell's latest statements focus more on adjustments to the policy framework rather than short-term easing signals. The interest rate market shows that the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to 0%, and the likelihood of a cut in July is only about 30%, with the market generally expecting the first rate cut to be postponed until September.
The U.S. plans to impose new tariffs globally, and even though the market believes the policy's strength may be limited, it still exacerbates short-term uncertainty.
The U.S. sovereign credit rating has been downgraded, and based on historical experience from 2011, the U.S. bond market experienced turmoil; such events are likely to impact risk assets, so everyone should pay more attention to liquidity fluctuations.
There is a general feeling that this round of adjustments is related to the previous rapid increase, and the short-term consolidation is probably a process of gathering strength, so do not chase high prices!
Currently, the Alpha sectors (such as AI, Depin, etc.) are quite hot, and those who are not in the circle may not receive timely updates; it is better to follow NiNi for analysis rather than blindly acting.~
