After a brief surge driven by the Consensus 2025 announcement, Pi coin plummeted 45%, with indicators and on-chain data suggesting that momentum will weaken unless new catalysts emerge, and the outlook remains bearish.
Main highlights:
Pi Coin has fallen 45% from recent highs, and the current trading price is $0.6984.
The market capitalization increased by 95% in 5 days, then dropped by $3.7 billion in 3 days.
From May 6 to May 16, the concentration of the top 100 wallets decreased from 98.76% to below 5%.
The EMA of $0.79 to $0.85 has turned into a resistance level, confirming bearish momentum.
Due to weakened indicators and failed support, analysts' outlook remains cautiously bearish.
Currently, Pi's trading price is $0.6984, down over 45% from the recent high of $1.57, with a market capitalization of $5.1 billion. From May 8 to May 13, Pi's market capitalization surged from $4.5 billion to $8.8 billion, nearly doubling in just five days. But by May 16, it fell back to $5.1 billion, evaporating over $3.7 billion in just three days.
Before this sharp drop, the price briefly rose, primarily due to major announcements—including the shutdown of Pi's central nodes and the launch of a $100 million Pi Network Ventures fund, both announced during the Consensus 2025 meeting (May 13 to 14).
Such rapid fluctuations indicate that Pi's price still reacts quickly to news rather than increasing steadily. Although this rise initially drew market attention, the rapid decline has intensified traders' cautious sentiment.
PI/USDT Technical Analysis: Indicators show weak momentum and bearish bias, sourced from the public account of Feng Baobao at the sweet potato roasting stand.
The rebound that began on May 8 pushed Pi above $1 and reached a peak of $1.57 on May 13, driven by significant news. However, buying power also rapidly diminished.
Currently, Pi's trading price is below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages (between $0.79 and $0.85), which have turned into resistance levels. The MACD indicator has turned bearish, with the MACD line nearly crossing below the signal line. The histogram has not turned red yet but is narrowing, indicating that buying pressure is weakening. The RSI is currently at 42, indicating neutral to bearish momentum.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV), reflecting the balance between buying pressure and selling pressure, has fallen over 12% from recent highs, indicating a slowdown in net buying. Resistance is located between $0.79 and $0.85.
Pi Coin is currently testing key support levels at $0.68 and $0.59, which were very important prior to the rebound on May 8. The price has not consolidated within the range but has pulled back from the high and is currently stabilizing at the price level where buyers previously intervened, waiting for new triggers to push the price up again.
A drop below $0.59 could open the path to $0.45. Unless Pi recovers its EMA with strong volume, the outlook for the PI network remains cautiously bearish.
On-chain indicators for Pi: wallet concentration transfer and declining trading volume.
On May 12, trading volume soared to $2.2 billion, then fell to $588 million by May 16, a decrease of 73%, indicating that the speculative cycle is fading.
The CoinCarp chart shows the distribution of wallets ranked by holders, indicating that the concentration of the top 100 wallets sharply decreased from 98.76% on May 6 to 14.76% on May 13, stabilizing below 5% by May 16.
Specifically, on May 13, the top ten holders held only 1.31%, and the top 50 holders held 2.7%. This drastic shift may reflect a reshuffling of the internal funding pool rather than actual retail distribution. The rapid redistribution during the rebound aligns with bearish technical indicators, suggesting that major holders may have taken profits during the speculative phase.
Conclusion: Event-driven sentiment keeps Pi coin volatile.
The 45% increase in Pi Network followed by a significant pullback was driven by brief speculation, particularly announcements made during the Consensus 2025 meeting (May 13 to 14).
This reflects that event-based sentiment is still more capable of driving Pi's price than the progress of fundamentals. The rapid fluctuations in Pi's market capitalization—a drop of $3.7 billion in just three days—indicate it remains highly sensitive to significant news.
Looking ahead, potential catalysts such as mainnet activation or ecosystem adoption may rekindle interest. Until then, trading in Pi coin may continue to be dominated by speculative momentum, and traders should closely monitor support levels to guard against further downside risks or attempts at rebounds.
