The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, hoping it will ignite a new bull market.
But the reality is that during past crises, the world has already overdrawn on easing measures, and now they are almost exhausted. Further rate cuts and stimulus may be ineffective and could instead trigger an unprecedented economic collapse.
Today, Bitcoin fell below the 103,000 mark, briefly touching 102,954, down 0.56% in the past 24 hours; Ethereum also fell below 2,500, with a minimum of 2,483, a 24-hour decline of 1.74%. Overall, the short-term trends in the stock market and cryptocurrency market have diverged, and investors should be wary of potential correlation risks.
Last week, Ethereum surged nearly 40%, leading to a short squeeze, and the market began to anticipate a return of the bull market; however, this week it quickly retraced, and confidence in the rebound increased significantly, prompting many to heavily short, while some investors cut losses during the volatility, hoping to buy in at lower prices.
However, if one only focuses on the short term, it is easy to misjudge the direction. In fact, Ethereum's weekly bullish candle from 1400 to 2000 has broken through the previous downtrend, and the long-term bullish trend has just been established. A slight pullback is merely a correction, not a peak.
Remember one thing: the outcome of the market has long been decided in the larger cycle. Don't be blinded by short-term fluctuations; the real opportunities belong to those who can see the bigger picture.
Solana (SOL)
Recently, it has risen strongly, rebounding more than 64% from the bottom, and this upward movement may only be halfway completed. Currently, SOL not only broke through key resistance levels but also successfully stood above the 26-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a sustained increase in bullish momentum.
Next, if the 26-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA, it will form a very rare strong 'golden cross', which usually indicates that prices will enter a rapid upward phase. Currently, SOL has made a strong rebound after finding support in the $120 area and has successfully held above $160-$165, further solidifying the foundation for the rise.
Trading volume has increased simultaneously, with technical and capital aspects resonating, pushing SOL towards the target zone of $200 or even $240-250. If the subsequent trend successfully achieves a key moving average crossover, SOL is expected to achieve a 100% increase from the bottom and become a leader in the next altcoin cycle. In the current differentiated market landscape, Solana's performance is particularly outstanding, and triple-digit returns are not out of reach.
WIF
In the past month, WIF has surged against the trend, with the price skyrocketing by 190%, returning to the $1 mark. Previously, after hitting a high of $4.19 in the fourth quarter of 2024, WIF was in a long-term downtrend, having pulled back more than 92% within five months. In the first quarter of this year, affected by controversies around Trump-related memecoins and low market sentiment, WIF once fell to a 14-month low of $0.32.
As the market gradually warms up, WIF has made a strong advance since rebounding to the $0.60 support level at the end of April, recently successfully breaking through the key resistance of $1, reaching a three-month high of $1.32. The current price is consolidating in the range of $1.00 to $1.20.
WIF has recently built a typical bullish structure. If it can hold the $1.00 support, it is expected to challenge $1.15, $1.26, and even the previous high of $1.37. A breakout from the symmetrical triangle and descending wedge also supports further price increases. Once market sentiment strengthens, WIF has the potential to challenge the important resistance level of $1.49.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Recent trends remain weak; although there was a brief rebound above $0.22, showing some resilience, the overall technical structure still appears fragile. The critical 'death cross' (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average) continues to suppress the medium-term trend, and since early 2025, this signal has become the main guide for DOGE's downward movement.
Although it recently rebounded from $0.20 and briefly broke above the 200-day moving average, the upward momentum lacks sustainability, encountering significant resistance around $0.26. The current price is constrained between the 100-day and 200-day EMAs; if it cannot effectively stabilize above $0.23, the bulls will struggle to dominate, and sideways or even downward pressure remains.
Trading volume is sluggish, and investors are highly cautious. The RSI indicator is in a neutral range, and the market lacks clear direction. Unless DOGE can strongly break through long-term resistance and reverse the 'death cross' structure, confidence is unlikely to recover.
Previously, Musk's related statements briefly ignited sentiment, but now, with the hype subsiding and macro uncertainties rising, the market environment for DOGE has become more cautious. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether it can return above the key moving averages to break the consolidation pattern.
That's all for the article! If you are confused in the crypto world, consider strategizing with me to profit from market makers!
