Is this rise just a bait? Is a big drop coming soon?

It was originally said that July might see the first interest rate cut, but now it seems unlikely.

According to the current interest rate market, the probability of a rate cut in June is basically zero. And it doesn't stop there; the probability of a rate cut in July is only about one-third, so the first rate cut this year is likely to happen at the late September meeting, which is a good half a year away from now in May.

Last week, Ethereum surged by 40%, causing some short positions to explode in an instant. When some people were doubting whether the market would rise significantly, this week the market experienced a volatile correction, which has strengthened the confidence of those in the bearish camp.

So from a macro perspective, the probability of a violent bull market starting in the crypto space is not high; it is quite possible that the market is just faking a breakout before a big correction, followed by a real bull market.