💰 **Federal Reserve Balance Increases by $2.4 Billion in One Week!**
**▪️ Kugler, Federal Reserve Chair:**
- Trade tariffs will lead to inflation growth.
- Labor market is stable, Fed's policy remains restrictive.
- Support maintaining the rate, Fed is in a good position for adaptation.
- Long-term inflation expectations are currently being held.
**▪️ Gulsby, Federal Reserve Chair:**
- Stagflationary effect of tariffs is possible, even if temporary.
- Support a wait-and-see approach to rates amid uncertainty.
- Fed's job is to be a firm hand, not to react to news and volatility.
**▪️ Jefferson, Federal Reserve Chair:**
- Inflation continues to decrease.
- Labor market is stable.
- Tariffs may impact inflation, but the effect depends on supply chain implementation and adaptation.
- Support moderately restrictive rates as an appropriate response.
**▪️ Deily, Federal Reserve Chair:**
- Fed's monetary policy is moderately restrictive.
- Strong growth and labor market, inflation gradually decreasing.
- Uncertainty shock has not yet affected consumer and company behavior.
**▪️ Barr, Federal Reserve Chair:**
- US economy remains stable, inflation is moving towards 2%.
- Trade policy intensifies uncertainty.
- Current disruptions may trigger price increases, especially in supplier bankruptcies.
**▪️ Goldman Sachs:**
- Forecasting 1 rate cut in 2025.
- Probability of recession within 12 months reduced from 45% to 35%.
**▪️ Barclays:**
- Expecting 3 rate cuts of 25 basis points in March, June, and September 2026.
**💥 Market Expectations (****#Fed**** rate):**
- June 18: PAUSE.
- July 30: PAUSE.
- September 17: cut by 25 bps to 4.00-4.25%.
- October 29: PAUSE.
- December 10: cut by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%.
- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.
- March 18, 2026: cut by 25 bps to 3.50-3.75%.
Yesterday: Jerome Powell's speech