This is one thing that has been bugging me —I've been keeping my eye on this — and I can’t help but think that something smells funny.
Powell’s recent speech sort of looked like it was important enough to cause a serious move in the markets. Price action when it comes to FOMC comments, especially, you know going into these statements, everyone thinks they know what the Fed is going to do. Rates, inflation cues, recession signs — it’s the perfect storm going into volatility. And yet … the market’s response? Too clean. Too controlled. Suspiciously tame.
Let’s break this down.
The Illusion of Volatility
That’s right, we saw some movement after the speech. But look closer. There wasn't the kind of liquidation spike or volume surge you'd expect if this were the time the market were waiting for. No clear conviction. No sharp rejection. No colossal trap snapping shut on overleveraged traders.
Yet instead we got a classic setup — a couple of emotional candles in both directions to muddy the waters and then, no follow-through. It was as though the market simply drank in the speech and then … stopped. Consolidated. Held its breath.
This is not how real market shocks act.
Here’s what I think bulls were doing: lying in the kudzu of complacency, they cloaked a strategic narrative of what may go right, of healing, while bears pounded a fist of exposure on their own contrarian tables — waiting for the day the market croaked, finally puking its hearsay: the great revulsion against the sustained attack of virus merchants who have turned the nation into a form of commercial toilet paper. What I think the market makers and smart money did was easy: They weaponized the Powell speech as a distraction — a reason for premature positioning by bulls gored to the left, bears eviscerated to the right. They needed to get people to pick a side fast.
And many did.
The Trap Is Set
Here’s the play I believe we’re watching:
Retail Flocks in – Shorts absolutely certain the market will dump following Powell’s tone, longs looking to fade the move and buy the dip early.
“No wild move – market calming down.” Volatility compresses. Into doubting comes everyone.
Weekend comes – Volume drops, conviction cools, positions are not covered though exposed.
Sunday night/Monday morning drop – The real move happens when it catches people off guard.
Why then? Well, it has a lot to do with the fact that from Sunday night to early Monday is among the lowest liquidity time period for the trading week. The ideal moment to prompt a violent move. Most traders are inactive. Thin order books are a feature of many brokers and exchanges. It's a sitting duck scenario.
Here’s how you flush both sides.
Market Psychology 101
This game is always mental before it’s technical. Also, the big players aren’t just looking at support/resistance — they’re looking at where you’re positioned. They want your stop loss. They want your liquidity.
So what do they do?
They create a, “how-do-you-do-I-may-blow-up-the-world” moment (Powell’s speech), lure traders into positions, and then do nothing. It’s a patient kind of trap. One that makes people uncomfortable enough to want to stay naked, but not loud enough to have them cutting out early.
And then, when most of everybody else is either complacent or overleveraged, they push the button.
This isn’t tinfoil hat theory — it’s the mechanics of markets.
Why the Actual Dump May Be Coming Soon
I’m calling it right now: The real dump — the actual liquidity grab — is likely to occur late Sunday night or early Monday morning. It is at that point that you can most easily surprise the market. The CME futures open. Equities start waking up in the pre-market. Then there’s the issue that crypto liquidity is fragmented. And nobody’s really prepared.
We have seen this script before:
Flash crashes on Sunday Asia timeframes
Flash crashes before U.S. opens
Cease-hunterRun when merchants are off the desk
That’s how you shake out the weak hands.
Especially when sentiment is fractured and confused — as it is at the moment.
What To Watch For
If you’re in the markets, here are a few things I’d keep a close eye on over the next 48 hours:
Stop areas: Pinpoint zones where stop orders are likely to be placed (above highs, under recent lows).
Open interest: Is it increasing without a corresponding uptick in price? That’s typically a sign that the rest of the pond has been baited.
Sunday futures gap: If on Sunday, futures open with a gap up (or down) and price doesn’t go anywhere, that could be your warning shot.
Cryptos weakness: BTC and ETH front-run risk-off Counter intuitively, BTC and ETH have an unpleasant way of front-running the risk-off moves in markets.
Final Thoughts
This isn’t about fear. It’s about being ready. It’s what happens when everyone’s eyes are fixed on the wrong signal (Powell’s speech), and the market tends to come out of the blind spot.
So don’t think the move already happened just because the candles got a little violent. That could be just the precursor to the shakeout we’ve all been expecting.
My advice? Stay alert. Stay hedged. And keep an eye on Sunday night — that’s when the real story might start.
