A long-term chart analysis of Bitcoin using the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA) Multiplier reveals a key trend in declining bull market peaks across cycles. In the past, significant rallies have pushed Bitcoin up above its 2-year average, although the gap between them has narrowed these days. Even as Bitcoin adoption and maturity increase, there’s a noticeable slowing down of its strong upward moves every cycle.
From 15× to 2.65×: Bitcoin’s Compression of Peak Multiples
In Bitcoin’s early years, price peaks reached extreme levels relative to the 2-Year SMA baseline. The 2011 bull run saw Bitcoin rally to nearly 15× above the 2-Year SMA, according to the chart. This was followed by a top at 10× above the average during the 2017 cycle. In 2021, the peak compressed further to 5×, with a final push failing to exceed 2.65×.
This trend is highlighted in the chart by a descending resistance line that connects five major oscillator peaks labeled 1 through 5. The most recent peak—point 5—continues this pattern of weakening blow-off tops, with the oscillator barely approaching the 2.65× band.
