#BinancePizza
The price trend forecast for Bitcoin on May 16, 2025 is as follows:
Price Trend:
The price of Bitcoin has oscillated above $100,000 for a week. During this period, it dipped to $101,000 yesterday (May 15) but did not break the oscillation range. Today (May 16), it has rebounded to $104,000, close to this round's high of $105,600.
Key Price Levels and Signals:
Support Levels: $102,000 (short-term demand zone), $100,800 (coinciding area of the lower triangle on the 4-hour chart and the 50-day moving average), $101,600 (key on-chain support).
Resistance Levels: $104,000 (recent breakout area), $105,700 (near historical highs).
Technical Indicator Signals:
Oversold rebound possible: The 30-minute RSI is at 31.4 (oversold zone), and the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart is at $101,742. If the price stabilizes, it may trigger a short-term rebound.
Momentum decay risk: The MACD (30-minute) shows a bearish crossover, and the histogram is expanding, indicating that short-term downward pressure remains; the MACD on the daily level is weakening, necessitating caution for a pullback.
Action Suggestions:
Bullish Strategy: If the price stabilizes around $102,000, combined with increased trading volume or RSI rising to neutral territory (>40), a price rebound breaking through $103,500 (intersection area of MA7 and MA30) can be seen as a signal of short-term trend strengthening.
Bearish Strategy: If the price falls below $101,600 (on-chain support) or continues to be blocked in the $103,500-$104,000 area. Continuous downward MACD and shrinking trading volume confirm the failure of the rebound.
Risk Warnings and Market Dynamics:
Market Sentiment and Capital Flow: ETF inflows are slowing, on-chain whale addresses show profit-taking behavior, and net inflows to exchanges are increasing, which may intensify short-term selling pressure. Long-term holders have stable chips, but short-term holders' costs are close to the current price, which can easily lead to volatility.
Macroeconomic and Policy Impact: The U.S. White House's RWA strategic planning and Bitcoin reserve policy boost market confidence, but the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy may suppress upside potential. Attention should be paid to macro data such as CPI released today, which may affect market liquidity expectations.
In summary, the Bitcoin market trend on May 16, 2025 shows certain oscillation and accumulation characteristics, with a potential for price to continue rising in the short term, but attention should be paid to the signals of technical indicators and potential market risks.
