kiko_kiyo
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Analyze the upcoming Alpha points threshold.
Specifically, as long as there are more recipients, the points threshold for the next period will decrease until it reaches a new saturation point, which is the local minimum of the threshold.
I reasonably speculate that Binance obtains the share m given by the project party first, then estimates the opening price n, and calculates m*n /100 = x (100 is an estimate, estimating the average reward for each airdrop). x is the expected number of recipients, and then selects the points threshold y through x, such that the number of people with points greater than or equal to y is approximately x. Lucky tail numbers are not considered here.
If the airdrop share given by the project party remains unchanged, the number of people with a score greater than the previous airdrop threshold y1 will decrease after the first round of point deductions (the number of people catching up should be less than the number of people who met the threshold last time), leading to a decrease in the next points threshold y2, which will eventually drop to a low point (this low point will not be too low, estimated to be between 150-180) and then slowly rise.
(Here, two influencing factors are considered:
1: The number of people claiming Alpha will only increase;
2: The number of new people catching up to the previous threshold may be greater than the number of people who met the threshold last time.)
However, this entire trend may also experience a turning point due to a large airdrop (the number of users choosing to claim during a large airdrop will increase, and the average points of everyone will decrease, directly leading to a decrease in the next airdrop threshold).
In the end, this is just a guess, as it is impossible to get the share allocated by the project party and the score increment for each user, so precise results cannot be obtained.
Specifically, as long as there are more recipients, the points threshold for the next period will decrease until it reaches a new saturation point, which is the local minimum of the threshold.
I reasonably speculate that Binance obtains the share m given by the project party first, then estimates the opening price n, and calculates m*n /100 = x (100 is an estimate, estimating the average reward for each airdrop). x is the expected number of recipients, and then selects the points threshold y through x, such that the number of people with points greater than or equal to y is approximately x. Lucky tail numbers are not considered here.
If the airdrop share given by the project party remains unchanged, the number of people with a score greater than the previous airdrop threshold y1 will decrease after the first round of point deductions (the number of people catching up should be less than the number of people who met the threshold last time), leading to a decrease in the next points threshold y2, which will eventually drop to a low point (this low point will not be too low, estimated to be between 150-180) and then slowly rise.
(Here, two influencing factors are considered:
1: The number of people claiming Alpha will only increase;
2: The number of new people catching up to the previous threshold may be greater than the number of people who met the threshold last time.)
However, this entire trend may also experience a turning point due to a large airdrop (the number of users choosing to claim during a large airdrop will increase, and the average points of everyone will decrease, directly leading to a decrease in the next airdrop threshold).
In the end, this is just a guess, as it is impossible to get the share allocated by the project party and the score increment for each user, so precise results cannot be obtained.
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