According to current market analysis, after fluctuating in the range of $102,000 - $106,000, the possibility of Bitcoin (BTC) breaking the historical high of $108,000 and reaching $110,000 in the next two months is high, but comprehensive judgment should be based on the following key factors:

1. Short-term Technical Signals​

  • Key Resistance and Patterns: The BTC daily chart has formed a rounded bottom pattern; if it breaks the neckline at 106,660, the technical target price will point to $140,000. The current RSI (70) shows a bullish crossover with the moving averages, supporting the upward trend.

  • ​​Derivatives Market Health​​: Unlike historical highs, the current derivatives market​​has not shown excessive leverage​​, reducing the risk of short-term crash and enhancing the sustainability of breakthroughs.

  • Whale Accumulation: Addresses holding 10-100,000 BTC have accumulated an additional 83,105 BTC over the past 30 days, with exchange balances dropping to a six-year low (2.44 million), indicating a long-term bullish sentiment.

  • ETF Fund Inflows: The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of $2.9 billion over the past two weeks, similar to the inflow pattern before breaking $108,000 in December 2024.

​3. Macroeconomic Catalysts​

  • Inflation and Policy: The US April CPI year-on-year is 2.3% (below expectations), coupled with rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, driving risk asset preference. The VIX index fell below 18, and historical data shows that in such environments, BTC may rise to $135,000 within 100 days.

  • China-US Trade Agreement: The suspension of tariffs eases market volatility, accelerating funds flowing into the crypto market.

​4. Risk and Pullback Warnings​

  • Short-term Pullback Possible: If it fails to hold the key level of 109,000, it may retest the support at 100,000. Miner selling pressure (shutdown price $55,000) and liquidation risks still need to be monitored.

  • Altcoin Rotation Signals: If BTC's market cap share drops sharply and altcoins surge, it may indicate a local top.

Conclusion​

  • Optimistic Scenario (60% probability): If it breaks through 106,600, it may accelerate to the range of $110,000 - $140,000 in the next two months.

  • Neutral/Pessimistic Scenario: Macroeconomic black swan events (such as policy shifts) may lead to fluctuations between $80,000 and $100,000.

It is recommended to pay attention to the confirmation signal for breaking $109,000 and monitor ETF fund flows and changes in the VIX index.