As Bitcoin successfully broke through the $100,000 mark, Ethereum (ETH) quietly completed a stunning comeback. According to data from HashKey Exchange, Ethereum surged from $1,800 to a maximum of $2,600 in just one week, an increase of over 40%. This rebound is not just a recovery in price but also a product of the intersection of emotional explosion, technical upgrades, and capital rotation logic. It is both a 'result' and a 'catalyst,' reshaping the valuation perception of ETH and possibly signaling that a new ecological cycle in the entire crypto market has already begun.
1. The launch of the staking ETF is the key trigger point; the market response is 'slow to heat up' but powerful.
As early as April 10, HashKey Exchange announced the launch of Ethereum spot ETF staking services, at which time ETH price was still hovering at a low of $1,400, and the market was almost indifferent. However, looking back now, it may have been the fuse for this round of rebound.
The launch of the Ethereum staking ETF not only represents the acceleration of Ethereum's PoS compliance process but is also a symbolic event marking the deep involvement of capital institutions in the Staking market. For traditional investors, participating in the staking process used to be complicated; now, participating through an ETF not only allows them to obtain returns but also avoids technical barriers. This is just like what Mlion.ai's staking trend analysis module indicates: when ETF + Staking are combined, the 'capital siphoning effect' it brings will far exceed the net inflow of ordinary ETF products.
The staking ratio of ETH has continued to rise since the launch of the ETF staking feature, with staking yields also rising, providing a solid liquidity foundation for this round of increase with long-term lock-up signals.
2. Technical upgrades provide 'core support' for the rise: but this round feels more like a recovery
Although the Pectra upgrade did not react in advance on the price side, it quietly changed the fundamental expectations. Unlike past 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' market behaviors like the Cancun upgrade, this technical update did not form a bubble accumulation, so the resulting increase is more stable and lasting.
Why is the market response lagging? On one hand, it may be due to the high uncertainty in the macro environment this year, leading capital to prefer defensive positions; on the other hand, ETH has long been 'suppressed' by BTC, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate once dropping to 0.02, becoming a valuation lowland. After Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark, the market generally began seeking rotation opportunities, with Ethereum being the first choice for valuation recovery.
Just as revealed by Mlion.ai's valuation deviation monitoring model: there is a significant divergence between the on-chain activity of ETH and its price, and historical experience shows that once the deviation rate exceeds 20%, the probability of a recovery is close to 80%.
3. Derivatives market amplification effect: Short covering and emotional release form a rising closed loop
This surge in ETH is not solely driven by unilateral buying; in fact, the enthusiasm in the derivatives market has acted as a 'magnifier.' As ETH breaks through multiple technical resistance levels in the short term, a clear 'short squeeze' phenomenon has emerged in the market.
Data shows that after ETH broke through $2,200, several large contract platforms triggered massive short liquidations, leading to a further price increase. This process formed a typical 'rise → short covering → price continues to rise' closed loop, with sentiment continuously reinforcing itself.
It is worth mentioning that Mlion.ai's liquidation point warning map function had already alerted when ETH stood at $2,500: if the price continued to break through $2,600, it would trigger high-leverage short positions to liquidate totaling over $100 million, a figure that was later confirmed by the market.
4. ETH price rises, ecological 'chain reaction' occurs
The biggest feature of the Ethereum ecosystem is 'the price drives ecological prosperity,' and this is not an empty statement.
Gas fees rise: Staking rewards increase, attracting more validators to maintain the network
TVL increases: DeFi lending capacity expands, improving capital efficiency
Developer migration: Rising mainnet costs force projects to migrate to Layer2 and re-staking architectures
NFTs and digital identities recover: The rise in ETH price drives wealth effects, reactivating the creator economy
These changes are just as depicted in Mlion.ai's ecological resonance radar chart: price increases drive up Gas → staking attractiveness improves → ecological TVL increases → application activity rises, ultimately forming a multi-dimensional positive cycle.
5. More than just a rebound, it seems more like a signal release
This round of Ethereum's surge is essentially a concentrated release of previously suppressed emotions and values. It not only rekindles market confidence in ETH but also sends a clear signal: Ethereum is once again becoming the 'main battleground' for institutional rotation and retail resonance.
Mlion.ai's recent sentiment analysis dashboard also shows that ETH's mention heat among global KOLs has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time this week, with the proportion of positive discussions on social media reaching a six-month high. This pattern of 'price + sentiment' strengthening concurrently is likely the beginning of a medium to long-term trend.
Summary: A starting point for the next decade?
'2025 is to Web3 what 1995 was to the internet.' This is the judgment of Dr. Xiao Feng, chairman of Wanxiang Blockchain. From the recent surge of ETH and ecological feedback, there is indeed this implication. If the last bull market was a new financial experiment driven by NFTs and DeFi, the next round is likely to be a systemic reconstruction represented by Ethereum's infrastructure, re-staking mechanisms, and compliant staking ETFs.
Mlion.ai, as the AI investment research hub of the Web3 era, is the best assistant to help users see these changes clearly. Whether tracking ETF capital flows, analyzing on-chain trends, or finding segmented opportunities brought about by technical upgrades, the multi-dimensional tool matrix provided by Mlion.ai can help you make rational and accurate judgments amid the frenzy and noise.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. All content is for market observation and information reference only; investment should be approached with caution.
