$BTC ### May 16, 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis and Outlook

#### **Current Price Dynamics**

As of May 16, 2025, the price of Bitcoin has entered a high-level consolidation phase after breaking through the $100,000 mark, currently reported at approximately **$103,140**, with an intraday fluctuation range of **$101,430-$104,180**. Short-term technical indicators show a pullback pressure, as the MACD presents a sell signal, and the RSI has fallen to a neutral weak area (40.47), but the medium to long-term trend remains upward.

Additionally, BTC briefly fell below $104,000, reaching a low of **$101,480**, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.05%, indicating that the market is facing profit-taking pressure near historical highs.

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#### **Key Influencing Factors Analysis**

1. **Continuous Inflow of Institutional Funds**

- The U.S. Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 20 consecutive days, with BlackRock iShares increasing its holdings by 2,250 BTC in a single day, reaching a total holding of 628,000 BTC (valued at over $64 billion), providing long-term support for the market.

- Inflows into Ethereum ETFs have also turned positive, as institutional interest spreads from Bitcoin to other crypto assets, potentially triggering market rotation.

2. **Macroeconomic and Policy Environment**

- **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: In April, the U.S. CPI inflation rate fell to 2.3%, alleviating market concerns about tightening policies, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts, and promoting risk asset preference.

- **Trump Policy Catalyst**: Recent U.S.-UK trade agreements and Middle East policy forecasts have boosted market sentiment, creating a favorable environment alongside Federal Reserve policies.

3. **On-chain Data and Market Sentiment**

- Bitcoin's Realized Cap has hit a record high of $889 billion, indicating strong capital inflow.

- The proportion of profitable trades among short-term holders (STH) has surged, with the market shifting from loss-dominated to profit-dominated, while long-term holders (LTH) maintain strong confidence in their holdings.

- The Fear and Greed Index remains at 70 (Greed range), but caution is needed regarding the risk of sentiment reversal.

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#### **Technical Key Levels and Operational Strategies**

- **Support and Resistance**

- **Support Range**: $100,800-$102,000 (4-hour chart triangular lower bound and 50-day moving average).

- **Resistance Range**: $104,000-$105,700 (recent highs and Fibonacci extension levels), a breakout may challenge $110,000.