Speaking with images, the current price suggests light positions and additional purchases below.

As of May 16, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating in the range of $102,000 to $104,000, showing a tug-of-war pattern between technicals and market sentiment. The analysis is as follows:

1. Technical pressure and key support Bitcoin's daily chart is continuously consolidating at a high level, failing to effectively break through the resistance level of $105,000. The 4-hour chart has formed a narrowing triangle structure, with the support level moving down to $100,800. Short-term technical indicators show a pullback pressure: the 30-minute MACD shows a bearish crossover, RSI has dropped to 31.4 in the oversold area, and the lower Bollinger Band support is at $101,742. If the price loses the short-term support at $102,000, it may further test the $100,800 level or even the range of $96,500-$98,000; conversely, if it holds above $102,000 and breaks through $104,000, it is expected to challenge the historical high of $105,700 again.

2. On-chain data and capital flow divergence On-chain data shows that the activity of whale addresses has decreased recently, with some chips being transferred to exchanges for profit-taking, and the net inflow to exchanges has risen to an average of over 2000 BTC per day, reflecting increased short-term selling pressure. However, long-term holders (LTH) have an average holding cost below $60,000 and have not shown large-scale selling, forming a bottom support. Although the capital inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. has slowed down, institutions like BlackRock's IBIT still maintain stable funding, showing significant mid to long-term support effects.

3. Macroeconomic policy and market sentiment game The Fed's hawkish stance suppresses risk appetite; the CPI data being lower than expected alleviates inflation concerns, but there is still a divergence in market expectations for interest rate cuts. The short-term benefits brought by the China-U.S. trade agreement have been partially digested, and the direction of Trump's policies along with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may become new catalysts. The VIX index has fallen to 20, indicating a recovery in risk appetite, but the Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative to -5.07, showing a cautious shift in sentiment among U.S. investors.

4. Market outlook and risk warning In the short term, Bitcoin may fluctuate around $102,000-$105,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at $100,800 and the breakthrough situation of the resistance at $105,000. In the long term, institutional accumulation, ETF capital inflows, and the halving cycle still support the bull market logic. Analysts predict that if it breaks through $108,000, it may challenge $120,000. Risk points include leveraged liquidations (below $100,000 or triggering $3.4 billion in forced liquidations), sudden changes in macroeconomic policies, and increased on-chain selling pressure.