🧭 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
📉 ECB Dovish Tilt
• ECB cut rates by 25bps in April → Deposit rate now at 2.25%
• Eurozone inflation easing steadily toward 2% target
• ECB’s Kazimir: Rates “near neutral” → More easing likely
• Persistent global headwinds → U.S. tariffs, soft global trade outlook
📈 U.S. Mixed Signals
• April CPI rose 2.3% y/y → Signals moderating inflation
• Fed’s Powell: Policy remains data-dependent
• Temporary U.S.–China tariff pause lifts market sentiment
• DXY Index down ~0.15% overnight → USD weakens slightly
🧠 Bias: EUR remains bearish (ECB dovish stance), USD is mixed →
Risk flows in control
📊 Technical Analysis (4H / 1H)
🕹️ Trend Context
• EUR/USD bounced from 1.1040 low → Now at 1.1220 resistance zone
• 4H & 1H charts show price stalling at pivot / 50% Fibonacci level
🔻 Bearish Setup (Analyst Consensus)
• MACD turning bearish, RSI below 50 threshold
• Tickmill: Bearish reversal likely at 1.1212
• RoboForex: Targeting a drop toward 1.1040 after rejection from 1.1222
🛠️ Key Technical Levels
🔺 Resistance
• 1.1220–1.1250 → Daily pivot / 50% Fibonacci zone
• 1.1300 → Major swing high
• 1.1370 → April top
🔻 Support
• 1.1150–1.1118 → 61.8–78.6% Fib retracement, previous lows
• 1.1080–1.1040 → May 12 low and extended bearish target
📥 Trade Strategy: SELL on Rally
🔽 Bias: Bearish — Sell rallies near resistance based on dovish ECB + tech weakness
📥 Entry: 1.1220–1.1230
🛑 Stop-Loss: 1.1250–1.1260
🎯 Take-Profit:
• TP1: 1.1150
• TP2: 1.1080
➡️ Risk/Reward: ~70–100 pip opportunity
❌ Invalidation: Clear break above 1.1250 → Watch 1.1282 breakout scenario
🧭 Watchlist
• EU GDP & PPI releases
• U.S. CPI data
• Upcoming Fed speeches
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