Recent price and volume trends of BTC and ETH
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have undergone a strong surge at the end of April and early May 2025. BTC's price climbed near $100,000 for the first time since February, even reaching approximately $105,700 before a slight decrease. Specifically, BTC peaked around $105k on May 12-13 and then corrected to around $100–104k in the following days. The trading volume of Bitcoin also skyrocketed during the peak – for instance, on May 13, the volume reached approximately $64 billion (24h), indicating active profit-taking by investors. Similarly, Ethereum saw impressive growth: from around ~$1,800 at the beginning of May, ETH surged over 35% in just one week, peaking around $2,490–2,638 on May 10-12. This is the highest level for ETH since late 2021, representing the strongest surge of ETH in 2025 so far. Afterward, ETH also slightly corrected below $2,500 (at times around $2,450) during the short-term profit-taking in mid-May.
Data from CoinMarketCap shows that the total market capitalization of crypto at the end of April surpassed $2.9 trillion, up ~10% from the previous month. However, trading volume in May has somewhat 'cooled off' compared to the peak period in April. The dominance index of BTC has increased to around 62% – a very high level, while ETH accounts for ~9–10% of the market capitalization. This reflects strong capital flows concentrating into BTC during the uptrend, but also notes that ETH has begun to regain attention: The ETH/BTC ratio surged ~38% from the April low (0.018 to ~0.025 by mid-May) – the first time ETH has outperformed BTC in 2025. This phenomenon indicates that investors are rotating some profits from BTC into ETH and altcoins after BTC has surged.
Technical Analysis: RSI, MA, MACD, and support/resistance levels
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator on BTC's daily chart briefly exceeded the 70 threshold at the beginning of May, signaling an overbought state after a series of strong price increases. Indeed, during the sessions where the price peaked above $100k, momentum indicators began to show negative divergence: RSI gradually decreased while prices continued to rise, warning that upward momentum was weakening. After the mid-month correction, BTC's daily RSI fell to around ~52 points (neutral) on May 14 – meaning that it has 'released' some of the overbought state and is not yet in the oversold region. This implies that price momentum is balancing out again, which could shift depending on new developments. For ETH, the RSI also spiked into overbought territory when the price reached $2.6k, then decreased to around 60–63 after the correction – still relatively strong but not excessively heated.
Moving Average (MA): The long-term trend of BTC is still confirmed to be upward as BTC's price currently sits above both the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA. For instance, the estimated 50-day MA of BTC is around $90k and the 200-day MA is about $65k in mid-May – significantly lower than the current price. BTC's maintenance above these critical MA lines indicates that the market remains in a long-term upward trend, with notable technical support levels around the 50-day MA ($~90k) and the 200-day MA ($~65k). In the short term, an important psychological support for BTC is the $100k mark: analyses indicate that $100k is a significant psychological barrier and also a zone with many concentrated leveraged orders, with about $3.4 billion in long positions at risk of liquidation if the price drops below this level. In fact, so far, bulls have successfully defended the $100k mark – BTC has bounced back several times when approaching the $100k–102k range. On the resistance side, the $105k–106k area is currently a short-term obstacle due to strong selling and profit-taking from long-term holders around this region. If overcome, the next target analysts are aiming for may be the $110k–115k range.
MACD Indicator: On the 4-hour chart, BTC's MACD experienced a bearish crossover right after the price reached a peak of $105k, signaling a potential short-term correction. This aligns with the price movement as BTC dropped to around $102k in the following days. However, on the daily chart, BTC's MACD remains above the signal line in mid-May, even showing signs of a bullish crossover after the correction. Some experts point out that the daily MACD is in a bullish trend and RSI ~63 – meaning the price is still strong but not overbought, suggesting there is still room for further increase if support at $100k holds. In other words, the overall technical trend remains positive as long as BTC does not break key support levels.
In summary, current technical indicators lean towards a short-term correction scenario within a long-term uptrend. The correction has helped 'cool down' overbought indicators, bringing the market to a more balanced state. As long as Bitcoin holds above the $100k mark, analysts believe that short-term dips are merely buying opportunities rather than signaling a long-term downward trend.
On-chain signals: Long-term holders, cash flows, and blockchain data
Recent on-chain indicators provide important insights into assessing the internal health of the market. First, data from Glassnode shows that the supply held by long-term holders (LTH) has increased significantly in the early months of 2025. Specifically, the amount of BTC held by LTH increased from ~13.66 million BTC (mid-March) to a peak of ~14.29 million BTC at the beginning of May 2025 – a net increase of about 630,000 BTC in just ~2 months. This level of LTH holding is back to similar highs seen in September-October last year, indicating that long-term holders have accumulated significantly during the price increase. This behavior often reflects the confidence of 'big players' in the long-term trend of the market.
However, it is noteworthy that right at the time the price reached $100k+ in early May, long-term holders began to show signs of slight profit-taking. Glassnode recorded that by May 14, the supply held by LTH had slightly decreased for the second time that month (although the absolute number is unclear), and the LTH spending ratio increased to 0.43 – implying that some long-term holders have begun to sell to realize profits. Glassnode warns that inflection points in LTH behavior often appear near local market peaks. In other words, when long-term holders who have held for a long time begin to sell off, it may be a signal that the market has reached a short-term peak. The actual situation aligns: the selling pressure from LTH around $105k contributed to creating a temporary peak for BTC. Nevertheless, the decline so far has been quite limited, and many LTH still hold most of their coins, indicating that there has not been a wave of massive distribution from this group – just partial profit-taking. At the same time, the number of wallet addresses holding >1 BTC continues to rise (~+12% as of mid-May compared to the beginning of the year), reaching a new high. The increase in the number of 'small whale' wallets is often seen as a positive accumulation signal from confident investors.
In addition to LTH, the on-chain flow data is also very noteworthy. As of mid-May, Glassnode recorded approximately +12,500 BTC net flowing into exchanges within 24 hours (as of May 14 data). The inflow into exchanges indicates that some investors are putting BTC onto exchanges, possibly to sell or wait to sell, creating short-term supply pressure. Concurrently, the spot trading volume of BTC on major exchanges also increased by ~15% in mid-May compared to the previous day, reflecting that trading activity is at high levels – often accompanied by significant volatility. On the contrary, it's noteworthy that the flow of ETH out of exchanges: in the first week of May alone, $1.2 billion worth of ETH was withdrawn from centralized exchanges. The withdrawal of stablecoins and assets from exchanges typically implies that investors are moving coins to storage wallets, indicating confidence in long-term holding. Indeed, CoinSwitch analysis suggests that this ETH withdrawal indicates investors are confident in holding ETH after the price surpassed the $2,000 mark, rather than leaving it on exchanges to sell. As a result of the price surge, approximately 60% of ETH wallet addresses are now in profit (previously, this number was much lower). This significantly improves the sentiment of ETH holders after a long time of 'buying the top.' Overall, current on-chain data has not issued any red warning signals, apart from noting some profit-taking pressure from long-term holders at high price levels. The accumulation trend and withdrawal of assets from exchanges remain evident, showing that large investors' confidence in the market has not weakened.
Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index, funding rate, derivatives
The crypto market sentiment in May 2025 is generally leaning towards optimism. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Greed zone throughout early May. Specifically, this index fluctuates around 70–73/100 points from May 10-14, indicating that the market has moderate greed but has not reached 'extreme greed' levels. On May 14, the index stood at 73 (Greed) – compared to 70 a week earlier – implying that positive sentiment is gradually increasing. The index being high above 50 suggests that investors are relatively confident and optimistic, but since it hasn't touched the Extreme Greed (>75) zone, there are no signs of excessive euphoria yet. Historically, the 70–75 range often appears during healthy uptrends, while fear & greed reaching 90+ is when one should be concerned about bubbles. Thus, the current sentiment supports a scenario of short-term correction to 'normalize' the uptrend rather than a complete reversal downward.
In the derivatives market, the funding rate – the cost of funding between long/short positions – provides clues about trader expectations. Notably, during BTC's strong rise in early May, the funding rate on several exchanges briefly turned negative. This means that more short positions were opened than long positions, with traders paying fees to maintain short orders even as prices increased. This phenomenon is often interpreted as the market 'not believing' in the upward momentum and betting against it, but it also has a positive side: when too many people are shorting and prices do not drop, it leads to a short-squeeze – forcing short sellers to buy back, further driving prices up. In fact, the pressure from short-squeezes helped BTC maintain its upward momentum above $100k despite the negative funding at the beginning of May. By around May 9, after some short positions were liquidated, the funding rate became positive again as prices stabilized above $103k. Towards the end of the month, the overall funding was neutral, reflecting a more balanced derivatives market after the correction. The open interest (OI) in BTC futures also increased by about +15.6% during the price rise, indicating new money flowing into the futures market (both long and short). This contributes to stronger price volatility, but so far, there has been no sign of a mass exodus in the derivatives market – OI remains high, suggesting both bulls and bears are 'holding the fort' waiting for the next direction.
Another psychological aspect is the inflow of funds into institutional crypto investment products. April and early May saw strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and investment funds. Specifically, on April 22, Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded a record inflow of $1.54 billion in a single day. For the entire month of April, the total inflow into Bitcoin ETPs/ETFs reached $3 billion, the best month since January 2025. Notably, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (ticker IBIT) accounted for 84% of total inflows in April – confirming strong participation from institutional investors. As we moved into early May, this trend continued: in the first half of May, Bitcoin ETFs attracted an additional approximately $320 million in new capital, led by BlackRock's fund. Significant institutional inflows are often a sign of long-term confidence, and in reality, they have supported BTC's price surge. The fact that there are no signs of capital withdrawal indicates that institutions are still accumulating Bitcoin, reinforcing the argument that the market is only undergoing a short-term correction. Meanwhile, the stablecoin inflow remains quite stable: the total market capitalization of stablecoins (~$232 billion as of March 2025) has not significantly decreased. Among them, USDT continues to gain market share (USDT's market cap increased from $148.9 billion to ~$149.9 billion in early May), offsetting a slight decline in USDC. Stablecoins are regarded as 'money in the crypto market,' so the maintenance or slight increase in total stablecoin supply indicates that there are no significant outflows from the market, and liquidity remains abundant to await investment opportunities. Moreover, quarterly reports suggest stablecoins are expanding their supply in the context of crypto price corrections, hinting that many investors are holding capital in stablecoins to await purchasing undervalued assets.
In summary, sentiment and derivatives indicators are quite optimistic and stable. The market has moderate excitement but is not excessively hot, and there are still forces betting against it (short) helping to balance things out. This is a typical environment during mid-growth phases, not resembling desperate sentiment or bubbles.
Macroeconomic Factors: Interest rates, economy, and global news affecting crypto
The global macro context from early 2025 to date has created mixed impacts on the crypto market, but overall, there are no major negative shocks sufficient to reverse the trend. In terms of monetary policy, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has entered a period of stabilizing interest rates in 2024 and early 2025 after a strong rate hike cycle in 2022-2023. U.S. inflation continues to gradually cool; the May 2025 CPI report yielded 'softer' results than expected – a positive signal that the Fed may consider easing policy in the future. The market expects that if inflation continues to drop, the Fed may halt interest rate hikes altogether, and even discuss rate cuts by late 2025. This expectation has supported a risk-on sentiment across assets, including crypto. On the other hand, the USD has recently shown some strength (the DXY index increased), creating some short-term correction pressure for Bitcoin (since BTC typically moves inversely to the USD). However, the larger trend remains that the USD is weakening compared to the beginning of the cycle, and U.S. Treasury yields are also cooling – creating a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Concerning the broader macroeconomic situation, at the beginning of May, the stock and crypto markets experienced turbulence due to concerns over a rising U.S.-China trade war, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new tariff package. This was a risk factor that caused both stocks and crypto to decline significantly for several weeks (BTC had dropped to ~$80k earlier in the year). However, these concerns have significantly diminished as the two countries resumed trade negotiations: Trump surprisingly de-escalated the tariff issue, easing tensions. This positive information is believed to have been a catalyst driving both the stock market and Bitcoin to recover strongly in April-May. Alongside this, the Trump administration, although supportive of crypto in rhetoric, has not made any significant policy breakthroughs in the first 100 days of its term. Nevertheless, Trump's plan to sign the first crypto law in August 2025 (according to White House sources) also brings hope for a clearer legal framework for the U.S. market. This bill is expected to create a legal corridor for digital assets, helping attract more institutional participation. However, investors are still closely monitoring political developments – for example, the recent U.S. Senate investigation into the relationship between Binance and investment funds related to the Trump family, or Arizona's governor vetoing a bill allowing the state to hold Bitcoin reserves. These mixed good-bad policy news may have a temporary impact on prices (causing short-term volatility), but are not sufficient to change large capital flows.
On the international front, China continues to restrict domestic crypto activities, but at the same time, Hong Kong opens up crypto trading for individual investors (policy effective from late 2024 into 2025). This brings new capital flows from Asia. Additionally, other major economies like the EU are in the process of establishing a legal framework (MiCA has been passed), instilling confidence in the long-term market. The geopolitical situation (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict) is also of interest to investors due to its impact on global risk appetite. At the beginning of May, there were rumors of potential peace negotiations for the Ukraine war, prompting some profit-taking flows to temporarily shift to safe assets. However, these reports are not clear, and overall, they do not alter the main trend for crypto. In fact, during recent U.S. stock market corrections (the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% on May 13), Bitcoin did not experience a significant drop, indicating that the correlation between crypto and stocks is decreasing. New research from CoinMetrics shows that the 90-day correlation between BTC and stocks and gold has nearly dropped to zero – a sign that Bitcoin is starting to move according to its own factors. This is an intriguing phenomenon: Bitcoin is beginning to 'decouple' somewhat from traditional markets, especially in the context of having its own catalysts (ETFs, halving, etc.). However, this does not mean that macroeconomic impacts should be underestimated: interest rates, liquidity, and overall sentiment in the financial markets still affect capital flows into crypto. Fortunately, the current macro outlook is gradually shifting positively or at least not deteriorating – a conducive condition for crypto to continue its growth trend.
Overall Assessment: Bearish market or just a correction?
From the analyses above, it can be concluded that the crypto market currently (May 2025) is likely just undergoing a correction within an uptrend, rather than entering a long-term bearish phase. This correction comes after BTC and ETH surged to new highs (BTC surpassed $100k, ETH exceeded $2.5k), so a 'breather' is necessary and healthy. Technical indicators suggest that the correction has helped cool off overbought conditions, but the main trend remains uptrend (prices are still above key MA lines, and medium-term RSI has room to increase). There are no clear reversal signals such as prices dropping below the 200-day MA or record liquidation volumes – on the contrary, BTC remains resilient above the key psychological support of $100k, and even quick drops quickly encounter absorbing buying pressure.
In terms of on-chain analysis, although there are signs of some long-term holders taking profits at the peak, most of them still hold their coins, and the number of addresses accumulating more than 1 BTC has even increased – no signs of a massive distribution phenomenon like the previous bear cycle. Market sentiment is also at a moderately optimistic state, not reaching extreme euphoria – this typically favors continued upward trends rather than a deep reversal. Although derivatives leverage has increased, it is not excessively one-sided; even negative funding and high short positions may serve as 'fuel' for the next surge if the market rises (short-squeeze). Institutional capital continues to flow in through ETFs and investment products, indicating strong long-term confidence in crypto. Simultaneously, macro factors are transforming favorably: expected interest rates peaking, inflation cooling, clearer policies – these reduce barriers to risk assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, if arguing for a bearish scenario (the market entering a long-term downtrend), one would need to point out signs such as: large-scale distribution by holders, breaking key technical levels, a shift to fear sentiment, or negative macro shocks. Currently, there is no convincing evidence for any of those. The Fear & Greed Index has not dropped into the Fear zone, indicating no signs of panic selling. The drop of BTC from the peak of $105k to around $100k is only ~5% – a very slight correction compared to crypto standards, not enough to be considered a trend reversal. Even cautious analysts view this as a 'healthy correction' following the hot surge. The CEO of an exchange remarked: 'This is a necessary correction due to the liquidation of excessive long positions. BTC has retested important levels and is likely to soon check back at $105k with stronger upward momentum.' This perspective implies that the market remains in an upward trend, and the recent drop has helped establish a foundation for further increases.
Of course, the risks cannot be completely ruled out. The crypto market is notoriously volatile; a sudden event (e.g., unfavorable regulation, abrupt economic fluctuations) can quickly reverse sentiment. Some well-known traders on social media even warn of the possibility of a 'black swan' – an unexpected event that causes prices to plummet. Currently, there are also a few signs to watch for: such as negative divergence on the RSI/MACD warning that upward momentum is weakening, or that BTC nearing historical peak levels could trigger more profit-taking. If BTC drops below the $100k support and then $90k, the technical picture will significantly deteriorate, potentially confirming that the market has entered a clear downward trend. However, at this point, those levels are still being held.
Conclusion: The crypto market in May 2025 leans more towards an accumulation correction scenario rather than a reversal towards a bearish trend. After a strong surge at the beginning of the year, a 5–10% correction is a normal occurrence and helps consolidate the price foundation for a longer growth cycle. Many supporting signals – from institutional capital flows, investor sentiment, to macroeconomic factors – indicate that the 'growth story' of crypto is not over yet. Therefore, the current phase can be seen as a pause in a bull market, and the market is expected to continue its upward trend after absorbing sufficient profit-taking. Investors are advised to remain cautious in monitoring key support levels and the actions of large holders, but there is no need for excessive pessimism. As noted by Bloomberg Intelligence: 'The biggest driver of Bitcoin right now is still the upward trend,' and despite recent red correction sessions, 'the dominant trend for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains upward' – the market shows no signs of entering a new crypto winter.
Sources: CoinMarketCap, Glassnode, TradingView, The Block, Bloomberg, Reuters, etc...