The market has shown signs of a high-to-low correction in the past few days. Last week, there was a sudden surge that seemed unstoppable. Many people thought that when Ethereum rose from 1800 to 2100, it was too strong and due for a correction, but it actually continued to rise to 2700. Once real good news arrived, with significant progress in the US-China tariff negotiations and the basic cessation of mutual tariffs, the market exhausted its last bit of strength and rose for two days. Finally, it seems like it's time to take a break, validating the idea that one should "buy expectations and sell facts" once again.
Currently, BTC's market is starting to fluctuate on both the four-hour and daily levels. According to the current four-hour analysis, a resistance level at 106000 has formed, so the first support level to pay attention to is still the round number of 100000. The smaller support level during the day needs to be focused on in the range of 101000-2000. Overall, the points to watch are in the first trend line range of 96000-98000, with the final key level to focus on being the gap at 90000-92000.
Regarding monetary policy:
Currently, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts are being postponed again and again, from a 100% chance of a cut in June to now a basic impossibility of a cut in June, and the probability of a cut in July is also not particularly high, making it very unstable. It can be said that although macro risks have temporarily diminished somewhat, the situation does not seem to be much better. It is still unknown when the printing press will start again.
There are three clues worth keeping an eye on:
First is the June Federal Reserve meeting. If they cut interest rates under tariff pressure, it could trigger a new round of liquidity-driven increases. If they continue to be tough and do not cut rates, the situation will look very bad.
Secondly, the SEC's attitude towards the Ethereum ETF. If the ETF staking function is approved, it will open up a new market worth hundreds of billions.
Finally, there are the stablecoin legislation and market structural legislation. Once passed, it could usher in explosive growth of on-chain assets, bringing a wave of investment opportunities for compliant on-chain assets. At this moment, a "farming mindset" is needed rather than a "gold rush mentality." It is important to maintain cash to deal with potential black swan events.
In summary, the cryptocurrency market is unlikely to be too calm in the coming months, with tariffs, the Federal Reserve, and regulatory factors all stirring things up, so we need to be cautious. However, regulation is improving, institutions are entering, and there is still hope for the market to rise. We need to be patient and wait for the conditions for a bull market to mature.
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