The possibility of gold falling, mentioned earlier, has already fulfilled the first condition, which is that the price has returned to the position before the tariff negative news in April. The external gold price has already reached this point, just close to the lower track of the channel, and it is basically the area where profits should be realized. The levels of 3000 and 3100 are no longer important; they are all nearby, and it is sufficient to return to the position before the tariffs. The previous judgment that if it continues to ease and fall (indicated by the blue line), seems to have a very small chance now, after all, Trump = uncertainty = 4 years = bullish gold options, and before the end of his term, it is unlikely to reach that level, so I put a question mark.
Gold in the domestic market has been falling from the 800 position and has reached the 750 area as expected. Although many people thought it was impossible, it has still arrived. However, it has dropped to the track, with 716 being a key position below. From the top of 830 to 730, a drop of over ten percent is already considerable.
ETH Ethereum: Tip on the 2nd, surged on the 8th, the ETH to BTC exchange rate directly reached a strong target level. The price of Ethereum also directly rose from 1800 to 2750, with both strength and speed fully releasing momentum. Next, we should focus on the possibility of forming a temporary peak.
BTC Bitcoin: As a product of risk aversion spillover, market adjustments for BTC are inevitable; the market may have become somewhat optimistic. A top formation has emerged on the 4-hour chart, and from this pattern, it may approach the key previous area within the range of 92631/98000 in the short term. Only by entering this range will the market choose its next direction, which may take some time.
Crude oil: Just after yesterday's tip, the price entered a dive mode. The domestic market has clearly fallen more than the external market. Excluding the impact of exchange rates, there may be other factors interfering, and it is necessary to guard against the external market's correction affecting the domestic market. The logic of crude oil is quite simple; even if a tariff agreement is reached, it will still be far higher than before April. There is a general decline in total demand, which is crucial, and no one can change that. Therefore, oil prices lack core support. From the supply side during the pandemic to the current demand side, the market will only develop in extreme directions. The range of 45/48 is strong support. Now we just need to see whether this round of adjustment will continue to consolidate and wait for risk preferences to extend slightly or if it will directly move to the target in one step. It's just a matter of rhythm.
In the commodities sector, focus on two agricultural products: one is peanuts and the other is red dates. The cycle for red dates has arrived, and the current price is essentially within the fair value range of the product itself; the bottom has already formed a pattern, and it can be pulled up to the previous high neckline at any time. If it breaks above, it will enter the previous consolidation area.
The composite head and shoulders pattern at the bottom of the peanut is very clear, and it has entered an upward channel, indicating a strong bullish signal overall, which can be pulled back into the previous range at any time. From the perspective of some commodities, there may be signs of agricultural inflation in the near future. Undervalued varieties are quality targets.
The Shanghai Composite Index is likely to be trapped in two ranges for a period of time. It is uncertain whether new risk preferences will emerge later. Regardless, there needs to be sufficient consolidation time before further development.