Below is the market analysis for Bitcoin on May 15, 2025:

Price Performance

Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately $103,197, down about 0.42% from yesterday, with an intraday fluctuation range of $102,240 - $105,863. After breaking through the significant psychological level of $100,000, it has entered a phase of high-level consolidation, with strong support above $100,000.

Technical Formation

The RSI index is in a neutral to strong region but has declined compared to the previous period, indicating weakened short-term upward momentum; the MACD indicator maintains a bullish pattern, but the height of the histogram has decreased; the price is far above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the medium to long-term upward channel remaining intact, overall in a strong bull market structure.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flow

The cryptocurrency market's fear and greed index is at 70, indicating a level of 'greed,' with market participants feeling optimistic, though there is a risk of overheating. There has been an outflow of approximately $96 million from Bitcoin ETFs, primarily driven by Fidelity's FBTC, breaking a record of 20 consecutive days of net inflows. In the short term, institutional investors may be taking profits, but cumulative inflows into ETFs remain strong, attracting over $5 billion in the past few weeks.

Macroeconomic Factors

The latest U.S. inflation data is below expectations, enhancing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, which is favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. Preliminary results have been achieved in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs, and improvements in geopolitical factors also support Bitcoin's price.

In summary, Bitcoin may oscillate in the range of $100,000 - $105,000 in the short term, waiting for new breakthrough momentum. In the medium term, with improving inflation data and easing U.S.-China trade relations, it is expected to challenge $120,000. In the long term, despite short-term outflows from ETFs, the long-term trend of institutions entering the crypto market through ETFs remains unchanged.