You may not have played CS:GO, but you definitely have a friend who made some money off it, and of course, they may have lost some recently too.
As the craze for meme coins gradually fades, some speculators who had experienced the volatility of meme coins have shifted their focus to CS skins, discussing CS:GO item K-line charts in various cryptocurrency speculation groups. Former 'meme coin hunters' have transformed into 'item flippers', seeing CS:GO skins as the next treasure map.
CS:GO (Counter-Strike: Global Offensive) was officially released on August 21, 2012. It introduced weapon cases and skin systems in 2013, allowing trading on the Steam market. This laid the economic foundation for CS:GO items, which have experienced free-to-play attempts and multiple updates, initiating a twelve-year-long prosperity in the item market.
In May 2025, the CS item market suddenly crashed, with the item index plummeting 20% in three days, and prices of several popular trading varieties nearly halving, sparking heated discussions among users on various platforms. This kind of market collapse feels all too familiar to cryptocurrency traders, except this time everyone is holding 'virtual gun skins'.
Players who have been steadily happy due to the appreciation of skins suddenly 'will no longer be happy'.
A market driven by speculation is fragile; how did these skins that resemble NFTs and plummet like meme coins attract their believers, and what will it bring?
Making money is an easy thing
In April 2025, while the meme coin market was lukewarm, the CS:GO item market was thriving, attracting the attention of many cryptocurrency players.
Everything started with the Arms Deal update in 2013, when skins (also known as 'items', essentially graphical overlays that can modify the appearance of weapons in CS) were introduced and could only be obtained through random drops in the game.
This opened the era of 'opening boxes is like a lottery'. To obtain rare skins that are hard to come by, players gradually began to trade spontaneously. The rise of skin trading websites further promoted the prosperity of the market, giving birth to a diverse ecosystem that includes players, trading platforms, streamers, 'dog flippers', black markets, data tools, etc.
It has even derived historical price K-line charts from: CSGO STOCKS
But most of those who felt the ups and downs of the CS:GO skin market were initially just in it for fun.
In 2019, Mantou was still in university. At first, the game was just a game. According to him, 'After playing for a while, I wanted to buy skins,' which is a completely normal thing for players.
For CS:GO players, skins are not just a decoration, but more like a social currency. High-quality or rare skins showcase a player's status in the community and satisfy their vanity. This naturally creates a demand for the circulation of items, leading to the emergence of a corresponding market.
After gaining a better understanding of the market, Mantou saw that skin prices were rising sharply, and as he was just a cash-strapped university student at the time, he developed the impulse to 'speculate on skins'.
His first bucket of gold wasn't much—'I made a few hundred bucks at first, and was happy for a few days.'
For Mantou, who makes money specifically from skins, buying skins and playing games feels more like a complementary activity. He didn't think much about trading strategies, 'I just wanted to play, so I bought to play,' but the volatility of the item market also brings him back to CS:GO. For instance, in April this year, he returned to the game because he heard 'skins are very hot'.
In fact, CS:GO and the item economy it has created can indeed be said to complement each other.
Renowned KOL Hua Jiao has actively researched the market economy created by this game out of curiosity. In his view, the enduring wealth effect of CS:GO's item market is inseparable from the attributes of the game itself.
'As a shooting game, CS:GO's game mode is very simple and hasn't changed much compared to when it was first developed,' coupled with Valve's frequent use of events to stimulate interest, which attracts old players to rapidly return due to nostalgia or other factors.
While being able to quickly attract or retain old players, the promotion of esports streamers has also lowered the entry barrier, continuously drawing in a steady stream of 'new generation forces' (mostly university students) into the market, forming the increment of this market.
Vanity drives players to trade skins, while the allure of profit continually hooks in new and old players, making 'play and earn' the best footnote for CS:GO games and the item economy.
Let item prices soar
The price span of the CS:GO item market is astonishing, ranging from ordinary skins worth a few RMB to rare treasures worth tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands. This uniquely constitutes an ecosystem. It is akin to the tiering of coins in the crypto circle—ordinary skins are like 'airdrop coins,' while top-tier items like the Dragon Lore and Butterfly Knife are comparable to BAYC and CryptoPunks in the NFT world, their prices constantly breaking records due to rarity and consensus premium.
A large number of common weapon cases and skins of ordinary quality are located at the bottom of the price spectrum. For example, the 'Snakebite Case' may only sell for about $0.36 (approximately 2.5 RMB). These items are relatively easy to obtain and have a large supply, thus their prices are accessible, meeting the basic personalization needs of most players.
In the mid-price range, item prices typically range from tens to hundreds of RMB. Items in this range often have better appearance designs, a certain degree of rarity, or are for more popular weapons.
Source: CSmoney
In the high-end market, prices show exponential growth, with items worth thousands or even tens of thousands of RMB being common. These are usually extremely rare knives, gloves, and top-tier weapon skins that are legendary or very rare. A brand new M4A4 | Howl, which can record kill counts and comes with rare stickers, has a recommended price of $18,324 (approximately 130,000 RMB) on second-hand platforms.
Source: ShadowPay website article
These high-priced items have gone beyond mere game props and are now regarded as collectibles and investment items.
Overall, factors such as the aesthetics, wear level, rarity, style of the items, the operations of item traders ('flippers'), student vacations, new drops, and even streamer effects all affect their market prices. The Steam market and third-party trading platforms also play an important role in shaping the CS:GO skin market.
Even if the influencing factors can be rationally analyzed, the whimsical rise and fall of item prices is still unexpected. This whimsy is common in both the CS:GO item market and the cryptocurrency circle.
When CS:GO announced it would soon upgrade to CS2 in 2023, many high-priced skins and rare stickers saw price increases. However, just a few months later, when CS2 officially launched, many skins fell sharply in price due to changes in display effects or adjustments to drop mechanisms, leaving many players who bought at high prices 'trapped'. Similarly, the $TRUMP coin that was launched before Trump took office also had its moment in the spotlight, but after taking office, the coin's price collapsed instantly, leaving a mess behind.
However, the price fluctuations and trades of items, although seemingly random and free like memes, are actually under Valve's control. The entire economic ecosystem surrounding items must adjust according to the studio's rules, with Valve holding absolute initiative.
Hua Jiao said, 'It (Valve) regulates all probabilities and the rarity of every skin that comes out, and can tell you where to go.' Even the display effect of skins in the game can change due to game updates. 'Why does CS2 have such a big impact on prices? Because Valve changed the display of some skins in the game; some look better, some look worse,' Mantou said.
Items in CS:GO are financial products that can take flight, but looking down, the string of this kite is always held in Valve's hands.
In extreme cases, there is a risk in the item market that 'what if Valve updates tomorrow and skins can no longer be freely traded?' As Mantou said, 'You cannot grasp changes in Valve's policies; NFTs are easier to operate in this regard.'
Cryptocurrency circle stories, the item market replays
The financial attributes of items and their price fluctuations have caused many in the crypto circle to exclaim—'Isn't this just NFT?!'
This is not nonsense; even the 'play and earn' effect it inadvertently achieves aligns perfectly with what GamFi design seeks.
Although CS:GO items can be used in the game, distinguishing them from NFTs in terms of practicality, Mantou stated, 'Some expensive items are indeed beautiful,' but in fact, this is only a small part.
'Skins have no functions, not even an extra three points of attack.' For the vast young player group, items carry more complex psychological needs and social significance. They are a concentrated embodiment of the pursuit of beauty, face culture, and identity symbols, which is similar to the role NFTs play in certain circles.
Professional item trading websites like Jbskins.com, while describing a max gold sticker from the 2022 Antwerp Major, also point out that it 'is not just a simple sticker, but a symbol of identity.' 'While it may not enhance your skills, it definitely enhances your gaming experience and face.'
Aside from the social identity symbol properties, the two also share similarities in price drivers.
Hua Jiao stated that the prices of specific items in CS:GO will rise due to the celebrity effect of streamers and esports players using them, while NFTs primarily serve as identity symbols and also require some celebrity effect to drive their prices.
Celebrity endorsements from superstar purchases can drive NFT floor prices up, with prices soaring hundreds or even thousands of times in a short period. However, once market sentiment shifts, liquidity tightens, or negative news about the project arises, NFT prices can plummet dramatically in a short time, causing significant losses for high-end buyers.
Coincidentally, after the CS:GO item crash, the cryptocurrency and meme markets have quietly warmed up again. Ethereum, which had been silent for a long time, has seen a nearly 40% increase in the last 7 days, breaking through $2500, and old coins like $PEPE, $PNUT, and $moodeng have also warmed up successively. Some even speculate that funds are circulating between different virtual assets, creating an alternative 'vampire effect'. Although it cannot be directly proven, this coincidence of capital flow has become a topic of conversation among cryptocurrency communities.
Opportunities and risks always coexist. Before May, CS:GO players who had been steadily happy for a while faced an unprecedented price cliff.
Mantou previously earned 50,000 RMB from item appreciation, which overnight turned into a loss of 70,000. When discussing his views on this price drop, he seemed quite calm, having 'been around the crypto circle', and felt that compared to previous drops that were like 'a dull knife cutting flesh' with little trading volume, this drop was significant, and the transaction volume was quite good. If the skin market can attract more attention and gradually recover, it should be a good thing.
After all, the story of cyber speculation will never end, from meme coins to CS:GO items. Markets, emotions, greed, and fear continuously cycle through different tracks.
The only constant is that financial freedom is always out of reach, and there will always be someone ready to take over at high prices.
