Ethereum (ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently navigating a critical technical junction. After a modest upward movement that brought it near $2,750, ETH is now testing the strong resistance zone at $2,850. This level isn’t just a psychological threshold—it also coincides with the historically significant 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), making it a formidable barrier for bulls to overcome.

But what exactly does this mean for Ethereum’s near-term price trajectory, and what key levels should traders be watching?

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Technical Overview: The 50-Week SMA in Focus

The 50-week SMA is often considered a long-term trend indicator, and its current positioning just beneath the $2,850 mark puts it at the heart of Ethereum’s latest struggle. Historically, this moving average has acted as both support and resistance, depending on market conditions. In this case, it’s clearly acting as a ceiling, rejecting upward movement and temporarily halting bullish momentum.

In the last few weeks, ETH has steadily climbed from lower levels, gaining traction with improving market sentiment. However, this rally appears to be slowing down as the 50-week SMA exerts downward pressure.

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Futures Liquidations Show Battle Between Bulls and Bears

According to data from Coinglass, Ethereum has seen significant liquidation activity. In just the past 24 hours, total ETH futures liquidations have reached $105.07 million. This figure highlights the intense tug-of-war currently happening between bullish and bearish traders.

Long positions liquidated: $74.09 million

Short positions liquidated: $30.98 million

This data reflects a market that is volatile and uncertain. The heavier liquidation of long positions suggests that many traders were caught off guard by the resistance at $2,850, leading to forced exits.

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Critical Support Levels: Can ETH Hold Its Ground?

In the event of another rejection from the $2,850 zone, Ethereum is likely to find strong support around $2,530. This level is not random—it’s reinforced by the convergence of two key long-term indicators:

100-week SMA

200-week SMA

When multiple moving averages converge at the same level, it often creates a powerful support zone that can attract buyers and spark a rebound. Traders should watch this area closely, as a bounce from $2,530 could set the stage for another attempt at the $2,850 resistance.

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Momentum Indicators: Mixed Signals from RSI and Stochastic Oscillator

Technical indicators are currently giving mixed but potentially promising signals:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above its neutral line, suggesting a slight bullish bias. However, it's not in the overbought territory yet, leaving room for further upside.

The Stochastic Oscillator, on the other hand, is testing the overbought zone. This might indicate that the current rally is becoming overextended, but it also shows strong buying momentum.

For ETH to break above $2,850 with conviction, both indicators will need to support the move. A weekly candlestick close above these neutral levels would reinforce bullish momentum and possibly initiate a rally toward higher targets.

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Upside Potential: Targets at $3,000 and $3,250

If Ethereum can decisively break through the $2,850 resistance and close a weekly candle above it, the doors open for a significant upside move:

First major psychological target: $3,000

Next resistance zone: $3,250

The $3,000 level is particularly crucial. As a round number, it carries psychological importance for traders and investors alike. A reclaim of this level could inject new confidence into the market and attract fresh inflows.

A push to $3,250 would not only indicate strength but could signal a broader market recovery, especially if it happens in tandem with a Bitcoin move above key resistance zones.

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Bearish Scenario: What If $2,110 Fails?

No analysis is complete without considering the downside risk. If Ethereum fails to hold the $2,530 support and breaks below $2,110, the bullish thesis will be invalidated. A weekly candlestick close below this level could spell trouble.

In such a scenario, ETH might slide further toward the next major support level around $1,688. This level has previously acted as a strong base during market sell-offs and could be a place where long-term investors re-enter the market.

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Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Ethereum

Ethereum is at a crossroads. The $2,850 level, fortified by the 50-week SMA, is acting as a gatekeeper. Bulls need a decisive breakout to reclaim lost ground and move toward $3,000 and beyond. On the flip side, failure to break this resistance could send ETH back toward deeper support levels, especially if overall market sentiment weakens.

For now, traders should keep a close eye on weekly closes, volume confirmation, and momentum indicators like RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator. A sustained move above $2,850 could change the game—but without that, caution is still warranted.

Stay informed. Trade smart.

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