Following the same rhythm observed since Solana’s recent price surge with transfers from FTX and Alameda coinciding with every SOL price dip since November. A Monthly Ritual: SOL Transfers on the 10th

This trend’s core is the regular SOL activity from FTX/Alameda’s staking address, which seems to function on a fixed timetable, with big SOL redemptions and distributions happening on the 10th of each month. The last transfer saw 187,000 SOL tokens unstaked and sent out to 27 different addresses. By the way, the address on the 10th of last month also shows 187,000+ SOL tokens being sent to 27 different addresses, or 27 different wallets.

The addresses in question primarily send the tokens they receive to centralized exchanges (like Binance and Coinbase). These are the exchanges that the addresses send the received tokens to all the time. They send the tokens there presumably to sell them. In short, they’re not hoarding assets. They’re selling them. In line with that behavior, they’re now occasionally forwarding some of the tokens that they received back in the time when they were giving out tokens to various addresses in the ecosystem to sell to various addresses in the ecosystem (which is a perfectly fine thing to do) and to send anyway in the direction of liquidating assets to the maximum effect in order to pay back FTX creditors.

Crypto analysts and traders monitor these transfers closely. They exert significant pressure on SOL’s price and offer insights into FTX’s ongoing efforts to unwind its multi-billion dollar balance sheet.

Over $1 Billion in SOL Already Liquidated

Beginning in November 2023, FTX and Alameda have returned to the SOL community approximately 8.218 million SOL tokens. At a notional $129 per token, that equates to more than $1.06 billion. On top of seemingly endless cash paid out and an astonishing number of assets returned to the affected communities, this latest group of FTX/Alameda assets taken are some of the more impressive in terms of magnitude.

The redemptions have not just influenced how people feel about the market but also how Solana now looks in terms of liquidity. The ongoing sell-off has led to a kind of supply-demand imbalance, especially around the end of each month, that has pushed down the price of SOL, at least on a temporary basis.

Despite the already gigantic amount of tokens that have been moved, the wallets linked to FTX/Alameda hold a still-considerable stash. The latest number puts the value of all that unliquidated staked SOL at about $893 million, with 5.205 million SOL still staked. If the pace of liquidation we saw yesterday continues, this could take another several months before all that value is off the books.

Looking Ahead: Market Impact and Implications

The crypto community has been having a good deal of conversation prompted by how predictable these monthly SOL transfers have become. Some people in the market see the opportunity to use the transparency and timing of the transfers to front-run price movements or hedge against risks. At the same time, there are plenty of folks who are worried that if the transfers keep happening on the same schedule and with the same amount of coherence as has been the case lately, they could become a serious and sustained source of sell pressure.

In a more general sense, FTX’s crypto holdings being unwound steadily serve as a less than cheerful reminder of the consequences that still resonate from one of the most visually stunning fits of madness seen in crypto’s short history. With still billions of dollars in holds or not yet decided being reinjected, every transaction undertaken with FTX’s now excess crypto unearths the long, winding road toward achieving some sort of restitution for FTX’s fallen customers.

At present, all attention stays fixed on the FTX/Alameda wallets and their movements around the 10th of each month—a rhythm that has become somewhat of a clockwork event for market watchers. While the crypto space continues to evolve, vaulting past the scars of its past, those of us in the space keenly await this monthly event and hope for a resolution that brings a sense of confidence back to the investing public.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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