Here is my assessment based on current metrics, market cyclicality, and sentiments:
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Is altseason approaching?
Yes, there are signs of its approach:
1. Decrease in BTC Dominance
• From the peak of ~55%, a decrease to 52.3% has begun — this is the first phase of capital rotation from BTC to altcoins.
2. ETH/BTC is rising
• ETH/BTC has risen to ~0.052 from local lows. If it breaks 0.055–0.06 — this is almost a guaranteed trigger for altseason.
3. Total2 capitalization is increasing
• Total2 (capitalization of altcoins without BTC) has increased by almost 10% in a week. This is the first wave of institutional entry into alts.
4. Activation of GameFi and AI sectors
5. Increase in trading volumes in small caps
• This is one of the classic signs: money is going into 'risk'.
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But: what could stop altseason?
• If BTC returns to growth and dominance rises again (for example, due to ETF news) — altseason is postponed.
• Macroeconomic risks: liquidity reduction, news from the Fed, or geopolitical shocks.
• If ETH/BTC does not break 0.055, capital rotation will remain limited.
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My probability assessment:
Scenario
Probability: Altseason will begin in June 2025 - 65–70%
If the current dynamics are maintained:
Altseason is postponed to August
20%
If BTC dominates again: There will be no altseason in 2025 - 10–15%. Unlikely, as the cycle's fundamentals remain.
