Is Bitcoin (BTC) expected to break through $120,000? Institutional divergence intensifies, key factors to watch

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been fluctuating around the $100,000 mark, and there is a clear divergence in the market regarding whether it can break through $120,000. Bullish investors believe the following factors will drive the price up:

1. Favorable policies: The Trump administration may advance a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, and some states have legislated support for cryptocurrency reserves, boosting institutional confidence;

2. Halving effect: Historical data shows that explosive price increases usually occur 12-18 months after halving, with May 2025 potentially being a key window;

3. ETF capital inflows: BlackRock and other spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows in a single week, showing significant institutional support.

However, bears warn of risks:

- High leverage liquidation pressure: If it falls below the $80,000 liquidity gap, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations;

- Uncertainty of inflation and interest rates: Delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may suppress the performance of risk assets.

Short-term trends may depend on macro data (such as CPI) and the implementation of policies; if it breaks through the $105,000 resistance level, the $120,000 target will become more feasible.