XRP futures open interest surged 41.6% in a week amid rising ETF speculation. Traders show strong conviction as XRP hovers around $2.50.

$XRP is back in the spotlight after a huge increase in leverage. Over the past week, XRP futures open interest has increased by more than $1 billion, from $2.42 billion to $3.42 billion, a nearly 4o% jump.

The increase in OI coincided with a price increase from $2.14 to $2.48, indicating that traders are betting big on XRP's near-term upside. Now, analysts are scrambling to find patterns and explain the dramatic jump.

XRP Futures Surge Signals Market Punishment

According to Glassnode data (see chart below), this is the fastest increase since February and now represents the highest open interest for XRP futures in three months.

This indicates that traders are opening new positions with confidence. When open interest and price rise together, it usually means that new money is entering the market.That being said, it's always important to note the scale of the move.

$XRP Volume and Price Discrepancy

While XRP’s price has increased by 16% in the past week, open interest has increased by 41.6%.

This imbalance suggests that speculative enthusiasm is outpacing spot buying, increasing the likelihood of further volatility.

The chart also shows that such an increase is not the first time. In February, there was a similar increase in leverage just before the short-term correction. This pattern means that traders should be cautious despite the bullish trend.

ETF approval around the brink?

The increase in open interest coincides with increased speculation surrounding the approval of the XRP ETF. Rumors suggest that a decision could come as early as June 2025. As traders position themselves ahead of it, leveraged longs have increased.

These speculations are linked to a larger and broader trend of increasing institutional participation.

The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in previous years led to price increases and capital inflows, and $XRP bulls now expect the same. And the prediction markets also support this theory. According to Polymarket, there is a 79% chance of an XRP ETF being approved in 2025.

As the chart shows, confidence has been rising steadily since February, with notable jumps in March and April.

This market-based data underscores the growing belief that regulators are warming to Ripple's case. Traders appeared to ride the news by stacking long futures positions.

Institutional participation increases.

The scale of the increase in open interest suggests that it is not just retail driven. Analysts believe the big players are stepping up. A billion dollar increase in deals usually indicates a depth of capital.

"When open interest increases with price, it is a sign that new participants are entering the market with confidence," said a crypto derivatives trader. "It's not a retail-driven pump — it's all the hallmarks of institutions."

While this rally looks strong, traders should be aware of potential risks. Volatility often occurs whenever leverage increases. If ETF news doesn’t come out by June, overexposed positions could start to fade.

Additionally, the difference between price and leverage often precedes a correction. Spot buying is necessary for XRP to maintain — or break above — current levels. If not, the market could see short-term pain before further gains.

What to look forward to?

In the coming weeks, all eyes will be on the SEC. A green light for the XRP ETF in June could have a huge impact on prices, but a delay or denial could quickly reverse sentiment. Traders should also monitor funding rates and long/short ratios at major exchanges.

Ultimately, while the outlook remains bullish, the fate of the market depends on developments in June.

Following comments from SEC Chair Paul Atkins that hinted at a more innovative regulatory approach, XRP futures rose to $5.5 billion in open interest as traders regained confidence.

This change in tone not only boosted prices, but also aligned with the broader ETF narrative building in the market.

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