Retail investors rush in, while whales watch from the sidelines. Has the bull market really begun?

From on-chain data, since BTC restarted its upward trend in early April, the flow structure of market funds has undergone a "silent but concerning" change: the inflow of whales has decreased from nearly $5 billion to the current $3 billion, showing a "rise and withdraw" posture, while retail inflow has increased from $12 billion to $15 billion, surging passionately to the peak.

At this point, I want to make a point: in the current rebound, retail investors are charging forward, while whales are watching coldly. The market is lively, but the risks are heating up.

Why do I say this? Because history has repeatedly proven: **the real main upward wave is driven by large funds (whales), not by the emotions of retail investors.** Whales choosing to wait and hold rather than continue to heavily invest indicates they do not believe this is the best time to increase their positions; they are more likely waiting for you to lift the market.

Of course, although retail inflow has increased, the overall capital inflow is still significantly below the bull market peaks of $20 billion and $27 billion, which means: the current market's "heat" is more localized and structural, rather than a systemic bull market restart.

My strategic view is: this is not the time to blindly chase after rising prices, but to selectively choose strong coins for swing trading, selling high and then using dual-currency arbitrage orders to profit, taking a defensive approach, remaining calm and patient, and waiting for the true return of whales — that will be the signal for the arrival of the main upward wave.