From the current situation, Bitcoin has a significant chance of breaking through $110,000. The specific analysis is as follows:
Favorable Factors
- Strong buyer demand: The profit supply of Bitcoin is approaching 90%, and holders are increasingly confident in future price increases, leading to a large number of buyers entering the market and driving up prices.
- Multiple positive news supports: Local governments in places like New Hampshire and Texas are legislating to allocate Bitcoin reserves, and the Arizona state legislature allows up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin and digital assets, encouraging sovereign funds to enter the market. Additionally, the Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies, such as regulatory easing and allowing banks to custody digital assets, have injected strong confidence into the market.
- ETF fund inflows warming up: Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract fund inflows, with net inflows exceeding $4 billion in a single week for Bitcoin spot ETFs from asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, bringing total assets under management to $112.7 billion, accounting for 5.86% of Bitcoin's total market value. The continuous inflow of funds provides momentum for Bitcoin's price increase.
- Market structure improving: After Bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels, if it stabilizes above $100,000, it could trigger FOMO sentiment, attracting more investors and driving prices further up. Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has broken through multiple days of flag patterns and descending wedges, confirming the upward trend.
Risk Factors
- Technical indicators suggest correction risks: The candlestick chart shows a top formation, and the MACD indicator's volume is shrinking, which suggests that Bitcoin's price may face a correction in the short term, thus hindering the breakthrough of $110,000.
- Regulatory uncertainty: Although there are currently some crypto-friendly policies, the global regulatory stance on Bitcoin remains uncertain, and strict regulatory policies that may emerge in the future could negatively impact Bitcoin's price.
Overall, many institutions and analysts have a relatively optimistic price forecast for Bitcoin. For example, Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to break $250,000 by 2025. Therefore, with the support of current favorable factors, it is possible for Bitcoin to break through $110,000. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, and investment should be approached with caution.
