1. Main price action:
- Current price: $103,120.
- Daily range: Bitcoin trading between $102,000 (major support) and $104,000 (short-term resistance), with limited volatility due to awaiting U.S. inflation data.
- General trend: Still bullish in the short term, with the price trading above the 50-day simple moving average.
2. Technical indicators:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Shows overbought conditions on the 4-hour timeframe (4H), with signs of slowing momentum, which may indicate a temporary correction.
- Volume (OBV): Slight decline in buying momentum, but it still supports the bullish trend as long as the price is above $98,000.
3. Critical support and resistance levels:
- Nearby support:
- $102,000 (turning point between a minor and deep correction).
- $99,500–$98,000 (strong support areas including Fibonacci levels and liquidity).
- Nearby resistance:
- $104,000–$104,600 (previously broken liquidity area).
- $108,000–$112,000 (bullish targets if current resistance is broken).
4. Factors affecting the market:
- U.S. inflation data (CPI):
- If monthly inflation exceeds 0.4% or annual inflation exceeds 2.5%, markets may shift to a 'Risk Off' state, leading to a sharp decline in Bitcoin and gold.
- Current expectations indicate inflation stability around 2.3–2.4% annually and 0.2–0.3% monthly, which may support the continuation of the bullish trend.
5. Possible scenarios in the next 24 hours:
- Bullish scenario:
- Breaking $104,000 with confirmation of a strong closing candle could push the price toward $106,000–$110,000.
- Continuity condition: Maintaining support at $102,000.
- Bearish scenario:
- Breaking $102,000 could lead to a correction toward $99,500 or $97,500 (institutional support areas).
- Sell signals will be confirmed by strong rejection candles at resistance.
6. Trading Recommendations:
- Long entry (Buy):
- When the price rebounds from $102,000 or breaks $104,000 with high momentum.
- Profit targets: $108,000–$110,000.
- Short entry (Sell):
- In case of breaking $102,000 with confirmation of weakening momentum.
- Profit targets: $99,500–$97,500.
Summary:
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has maintained its relative stability above the $102,000 level, with traders focusing on inflation data and its potential impact on liquidity. It is advised to monitor the breaking of the $102,000 and $104,000 levels as critical signals for the upcoming trend, while being cautious of sharp volatility resulting from economic news.
$BTC
