Just when you think the U.S. is finally reaching a consensus on stablecoin legislation, reality again plays out the script of 'politics overriding regulation.' On May 8, the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing a National Innovation Act for U.S. Stablecoins) faced a setback in the Senate, failing to pass by a narrow margin of 48 votes in favor and 49 against, with the underlying resistance deeply rooted in the financial landscape of the country's highest power structure, unrelated to technical details.
Although some legislators have indicated they may vote again in a few days, the political minefield has already surfaced: the close relationship between the Trump family and crypto platform World Liberty Financial, along with potential conflicts of interest surrounding the USD1 stablecoin, has completely ignited this legislative controversy. The fate of the GENIUS Act has shifted from crypto regulation issues to a full-blown political offensive and defensive battle.
Trump's 'stablecoin asset package' ignites the legislative fire
On the surface, the GENIUS Act aims to establish a unified compliance framework for the U.S. stablecoin market, providing regulatory clarity and enhancing the global digital competitiveness of the dollar. However, as the vote approaches, the public and Democratic legislators begin to focus on a more thorny issue: Trump and his family, through their deep ties with the USD1 stablecoin platform World Liberty Financial, are quietly shaping a 'private stablecoin empire.'
According to the nonpartisan organization "National Democratic Defenders Action," by the end of 2024, the Trump family holds approximately $2.9 billion in crypto assets, accounting for 40% of their total wealth. Among them, the USD1 stablecoin planned for launch by World Liberty Financial will be used to settle its $2 billion investment in Binance, with the underlying capital coming from Abu Dhabi.
Notably, Trump's three children—Donald Jr., Eric, and Barron—are listed by the platform as 'Web3 Ambassadors.' This yet-to-be-launched stablecoin has already begun to embed itself in international investment scenarios, despite the lack of regulatory legislation in the U.S., undoubtedly exacerbating concerns about the 'blurring of political and business boundaries.'
The 'excuse' and 'real reason' for the bill's postponement
The vote result on May 8 did not genuinely end the legislative process. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer quickly proposed a motion for reconsideration, planning to submit it for a vote again within days. However, if the Republicans do not make any changes to the bill's content and continue to ignore the constraints regarding Trump's potential conflicts of interest, it will be nearly impossible to achieve the 60 votes needed in the Senate to overcome any agenda obstruction that Democrats may initiate in the current political atmosphere.
Democrat representative Maxine Waters stated bluntly: 'The Republican bill does not address Trump's crypto interests and instead gives him regulatory power over competing stablecoins.' She also directly halted a scheduled hearing on the market structure of digital assets, citing 'the inability to advance such legislation in the context of the President holding crypto assets.'
This 'pause' is not intended to perfect the terms, but to clarify political positions and governance boundaries.
What is the 'next step' for the GENIUS Act?
It is foreseeable that, without results in the political game, it is unrealistic for the GENIUS Act to be pushed forward quickly. Unless the Republicans are willing to add disclosure obligations, isolation clauses, or establish independent regulatory agencies to resolve the questions of 'Trump's conflict of interest,' the Democrats will continue to use procedural tools to delay.
However, this deadlock also brings new risks: the United States' dominant position in global stablecoin standard-setting is facing the possibility of being weakened.
The European MiCA framework has clearly defined stablecoin standards, and many Asian countries are also promoting central bank digital currency (CBDC) and regulatory mechanisms for quasi-stablecoins. If the U.S. continues to 'tread water' in the legislative process, its discourse power on financial innovation may be gradually replaced by other economies.
This trend has already been significantly reflected in Mlion.ai's policy impact assessment system. The model shows that if the U.S. does not complete stablecoin legislation by Q3 2025, its standard traction in the global stablecoin ecosystem will decline by 27%, while the legal compliance risk scores for related crypto projects will also significantly rise, especially for asset designs involving dollar-pegged structures.
Is the stablecoin bill reduced to a 'campaign tool' under political and business entanglement?
The policy logic of the GENIUS Act should revolve around transparency, risk control, and the positioning of the Federal Reserve, but in reality, it has become a bargaining chip in electoral politics.
According to warnings from the Cedar Innovation Foundation, if Congress cannot pass the bill in the near term, it will damage the crypto industry's trust in the government. The associated political action committee Fairshake has already invested over $131 million in the 2024 election, with some donations going to candidates currently serving in Congress. With over 500 days until the 2026 midterm elections, the political 'infiltration game' into the crypto industry is no longer concealed.
Similar historical reflections have been meticulously archived in Mlion.ai's digital financial historiography module—over the past few decades, whenever key contradictions arise at the intersection of technology and power, the legislative process is often forced to delay, deform, or even completely deviate from its technical essence, and stablecoin regulation is no exception.
In conclusion: The stablecoin dispute is ultimately a test of institutional trust.
Whether the GENIUS Act can be passed is no longer a simple legislative issue, but a critical juncture to test how the American democratic mechanism responds to technological shocks and power entanglements.
From a technical perspective, the U.S. has the capability to establish the world's strongest stablecoin framework; however, from a political reality standpoint, if it cannot establish a clear 'separation of political and business interests' and 'rule-making mechanisms' in the short term, this advantage may be quickly lost.
In this contest, compliance capability, policy understanding, and real-time intelligence acquisition will determine the survival of market players.
And this is precisely the core value that the Mlion.ai platform continues to cultivate—it not only provides price predictions, policy interpretations, and on-chain risk identification but, more importantly, builds the capability to analyze regulatory changes across jurisdictions by integrating global policy dynamics, helping users seize the initiative amidst regulatory chaos.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make prudent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.